Dustin Baker’s 5 Predictions for the 2024 Vikings

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It’s time.

Dustin Baker’s 5 Predictions for the 2024 Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings set sail on the regular season in precisely four days, taking on the New York Giants in New Jersey, the club that booted them from the 2022 postseason.

To set the table for the Vikings’ 64th regular season in franchise history, here are five predictions for the 2024 club, ranked in ascending order (No. 1 = most confident prediction).

5. Kwesi Deals for Picks at the Deadline

Vikings
Minnesota General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah addressed the media about the upcoming 2024 NFL Draft from the TCO Performance Center. The Vikings have long-term draft needs at quarterback, cornerback, and interior offensive line.

The Vikings may have a 2-6 or 3-5 record around the NFL’s trade deadline — November 5th — because of a murderous schedule. Accordingly, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah wheels and deals on or before that Tuesday, trading existing players for some draft capital.

Minnesota’s draft piggybank is barren due to the trades necessary to select Dallas Turner four months ago, so it’s time to fortify the cabinet.

Veterans like Garrett Bradbury, Camryn Bynum, or Akayleb Evans could be jettisoned for late-round picks.

4. The Defense Finishes in the Top 10

OLB Andrew Van Ginkel makes it official and becomes a Minnesota Viking on March 15th, 2024, in Eagan, Minnesota. Van Ginkel spent the 2019-2022 seasons with the Miami Dolphins and joined Minnesota via free agency in 2024. He grew up cheering for the Vikings.

In one season, defensive coordinator Brian Flores improved the purple defense from 24th in DVOA to 11th. Now, it’s time to enter the Top 10. Adofo-Mensah added a bevy of impact defensive players from free agency and the aforementioned Turner in the draft. Promising DT Levi Drake Rodriguez was chosen in the 7th; CB Dwight McGlothern helped from undrafted free agency, too.

Choose your fighter for the statistical metric: EPA/Play, DVOA, Points Allowed, PFF, etc. — by season’s end, the Vikings will boast a Top 10 defense.

3. Vikings Miss the Postseason with a 7-10 or 8-9 Record

PurplePTSD: A Zimmer-ish Quote, Kirk Debates Galore, MNF
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.

A sweet defense, however, won’t be enough to overcome a brutal schedule and NFC North slate of opponents. While Minnesota remains competitive throughout the season — rebounding in November from a rough start — the club does not qualify for the postseason.

By mid-to-late December, fans chant in unison, “Wait until we get J.J. McCarthy with this defense next year.”

2. Will Reichard Will Be the Best Vikings Kicker Year since 2013

Predictions
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Once upon a time, Blair Walsh was a good kicker. Really good, in fact.

His last tremendously successful season occurred in 2013. That’s how much time has transpired since fans didn’t have to worry too much about field goals and extra points. Well, with Will Reichard in the saddle, the kicking game will markedly improve, so much so that by the end of the season, Reichard is a total fan favorite.

The Vikings are overdue for a franchise kicker. Reichard is him.

1. Sam Darnold Throws 25+ Passing TDs

sam darnold
New Minnesota quarterback S. Darnold at June 2024 minicamp. Eagan, Minnesota. TCO Performance Center. Darnold has played with the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and San Francisco 49ers in his six-year career.

It won’t be lights-out at all times, but to an extent, Sam Darnold will thrive with Kevin O’Connell’s tutelage. Josh McCown, as the quarterback coach, helps, as well.

Darnold will still throw some dumb interceptions, interlaced with head-scratching fumbles, but when the dust settles, most NFL fans will think about Darnold, “This guy isn’t bad after all.”

In March, Darnold will sign with a team like the Seattle Seahawks for another QB1 gig as Minnesota enters the McCarthy era full-throttle.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL. 

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.