Dustin Baker’s 2024 QB Power Rankings

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) throws in the fourth quarter during an NFL football game between the Seattle Seahawks and the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Bengals won, 17-13. © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK.

The NFL regular season begins in 116 days. The frontrunners to win the chip next February are the usual suspects: the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Baltimore Ravens.

Quarterback rankings are constantly in flux and will change enormously between now and January.

Dustin Baker’s 2024 QB Power Rankings

But two weeks removed from the 2024 NFL Draft, these are current quarterback power rankings. Quarterbacks are ranked from worst to first.

Please note: The principal criteria for each passer is this: “Which quarterback can be trusted in a playoff game, in the second half, down by the 10 points?”

32. Bo Nix (DEN)

Vikings Draft
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports.

Sean Payton may eventually unlock Bo Nix to his fullest potential, but for now, he’s a short-range passer who will probably be thrust into QB1 duty immediately. That’s good enough for No. 32 on the list.

31. Jacoby Brissett (NE)

Unless Drake Maye wows everyone this summer, Brissett will start for the 2024 Patriots, and most folks already know his story — he’s better suited for QB2 (though he’s beloved in Foxboro).

30. Bryce Young (CAR)

C.J. Stroud ruined it for everybody, and now Young has to step up in 2024 and prove his growth was simply delayed a little bit. He’ll encounter a bit more offensive weaponry as a sophomore in the league.

29. Jayden Daniels (WAS)

The Commanders quietly fired up a fruitful free agency and an even better draft. They’re ready to compete now, and Daniels should get off the ground in September. The only knock on him during the draft’s lead-up was the ability to absorb hits from NFL defenders when he scampers.

28. Will Levis (TEN)

QB Power Rankings
Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) reacts after wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) received a pass for a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Oct. 29, 2023.

Levis looked great in flashes last year and has the swagger to succeed as a QB1. However, he must be wiser concerning his health, learning to adopt the “live to see another play” philosophy instead of hero ball as a ball carrier.

27. Daniel Jones (NYG)

The 2024 campaign is make-or-break for Jones in New York. If he doesn’t work out, all those draft rumors involving a quarterback will come to fruition in 2025. Maybe Malik Nabers will be the special sauce.

26. Gardner Minshew (LV)

Las Vegas has the least exciting plan for the future at QB1 in the NFL, handing the baton to Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. Minshew should be resilient enough to grab 6-9 wins in Las Vegas, but that isn’t really a compliment.

25. Russell Wilson (PIT)

Wilson played quite well in 2023, but the 2022 stink followed his reputation — so much so that the Broncos had seen enough. The Steelers will win nine games with or without Wilson, and this stop in Pittsburgh should be considered Wilson’s last chance to reestablish his pre-2022 mastery. The guy was on pace for the Hall of Fame not long ago.

24. Sam Darnold (MIN)

Sam Darnold
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports.

Darnold, as a standalone passer, might be worse than No. 24 on this list, but his supporting cast in Minnesota is tailor-made from heaven. A former quarterback as his head coach, a former teammate as his quarterback coach, plus Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison prop Darnold up to succeed for the first time in his career.

23. Caleb Williams (CHI)

By November or so, there’s a decent chance that Williams has climbed into the Top 15. But the thing is — he actually has to be translate to the NFL first. We’ve been told about generational quarterbacks before in the form of Trevor Lawrence, for example — “there’s no way this guy is a miss” — and then the man isn’t all that dynamic. Williams will have to earn it in Chicago, a spot that has notoriously never developed a quarterback, at least not in the Super Bowl era.

22. Geno Smith (SEA)

An under-the-radar achievement in 2023, Smith reached a Pro Bowl. His 2023 season faltered compared to 2022, but they evidently love him in Seattle.

21. Derek Carr (NO)

Carr tabulated a 25-TD to 8-INT split last year, but most classified his season as blah. He must be more productive in 2024 to convince New Orleans of a longer-term relationship. Carr will pair with Gary Kubiak this season, who extracted the best from Kirk Cousins in 2021.

20. Deshaun Watson (CLE)

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports.

This man desperately needs a mammoth bounceback season that makes onlookers think, “That’s the Deshaun Watson I remember.” It’s been five years since Watson was elite while his team showcased a winning record. He’s overdue.

19. Anthony Richardson (IND)

Richardson played marvelously for a few games before he was injured. If the injuries don’t become a theme, he can enter the NFL’s top tier within the next few seasons. He has all the tools, and he’s dedicated to his craft.

18. Baker Mayfield (TB)

Per the numbers, Mayfield essentially had a Kirk Cousins statline in 2023, accounting for 28 touchdowns, 10 picks, and over 4,400 passing yards. But will it last?

17. Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

Lawrence’s pocketbook depends on 2024. This season determines whether he’s a $50 million quarterback in 2025 and beyond — or if he begins to contemplate free agency in 2026. His 2023 campaign was basically average and far beneath what a former No. 1 overall pick should facilitate. Lawrence is also one of those players who nobody will be surprised if he shows up in 2024 and totally “figures it out.” He’s shown moments.

16. Jared Goff (DET)

Vikings 2nd Fiddle
Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports.

Can Goff guide the ship of the Lions’ foundationally sturdy offense? Absolutely. Can Goff take an ordinary team to playoffs “by himself?” Nope. Sixteenth-best sounds just about right.

15. Kirk Cousins (ATL)

Cousins has played the best football of his career in the last three seasons. Now, he’ll embrace a change of scenery in Atlanta, a club boasting oodles of offensive armaments. If Cousins was not recovering from a torn Achilles, he’d rank a few spots higher on this list. But he’ll be 36 this summer and returning from a brutal injury.

14. Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

Tagovailoa, more than any quarterback in the NFL, needs a signature moment in the playoffs to convince the masses that he’s the real deal. For now, he’s right in the middle: a prolific regular season commodity that morphs into a question mark in big moments.

13. Brock Purdy (SF)

Scroll up to Jared Goff and read the caption. Here, we’ll do it for you: Can Purdy guide the ship of the 49ers’ foundationally sturdy offense? Absolutely. Can Purdy take an ordinary team to playoffs “by himself?” Nope.

12. Jordan Love (GB)

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Jordan Love performed wonderfully as a first-year starter in 2023. Now, he has to do it again. NFL history is filled with men who couldn’t replicate an impressive first act, mainly because defensive coordinators “figure them out.” Love will probably climb this list in no time, but he must prove it.

11. Dak Prescott (DAL)

He’s the Cowboys’ version of Kirk Cousins. Prescott is really, really good, but really, really not great.

10. Kyler Murray (ARI)

When Murray returned from an injury last season, his team was already out of playoff contention, and no one really cared about his performance. Yet, he performed rather well and still has all the tools to do great things. Based on his raw talent, plus a full year on tap in 2024, he can become a fringe Top 10 quarterback.

9. Matthew Stafford (LAR)

The old war horse, Stafford has a few years left to win a second Super Bowl. He threw for about 4,000 yards in 15 games and is a steady Eddie with the game on the line. He’s still more trustworthy than most in pressure-cooked situations.

8. Jalen Hurts (PHI)

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Eagles utterly baffled everyone down the stretch of 2023 with a horrid losing streak, and Hurts’ stock fell accordingly. He’s not the best pure passer in the NFL, but his short-yard acumen on the ground and sheer strength are a marvel. Hurts recorded 40 total touchdowns in 2023.

7. C.J. Stroud (HOU)

Like Jordan Love above, Stroud has to “prove it” in consecutive seasons. The Offensive Rookie of the Year had all the right stuff in Year No. 1 — even after his surrounding cast looked terrible on paper at this time last year. Stroud will become a Top Fiver if he replicates his 2023 performance.

6. Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)

We won’t be the outfit to count Rodgers out due to age. Nope. That could’ve happened in 2018 and 2019 for Rodgers, but then he won back-to-back MVPs. So, we’re not going to do it. Rodgers has to prove his age-related decline has arrived for us to believe it.

5. Lamar Jackson (BAL)

Jackson has a few more years to win a Super Bowl, as he’ll likely see a downturn like Cam Newton in 2017. A running quarterback doesn’t have the longevity of a pocket passer, so the time is now for Jackson. The good news? He’s an electric playmaker.

4. Justin Herbert (LAC)

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports.

Herbert did the stats stuff in his first four years — and did it masterfully. Now, with Jim Harbaugh at his side, he can become the “QB Wins” guy. It’s all setting up.

3. Josh Allen (BUF)

Allen plays way too recklessly at times, but he can get away with it because he’s clutch. He almost single-handedly dragged Buffalo to the postseason last year when it was down for the count. This go-round, though, he’ll see a brave new world without Stefon Diggs.

2. Joe Burrow (CIN)

Burrow only ousts Allen because of his decision-making. He simply doesn’t have as many turnovers as Allen, and that means something. Assuming Burrow stays healthy — and it will help if his team doesn’t hop out to its customary slow start — Burrow is the second-best in the business behind you know who.

1. Patrick Mahomes (KC)

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports.

Mahomes is on a path to becoming the greatest of all time, and the only reason it hasn’t been declared yet is a) No one wants to jinx it b) Because of Michael Jordan, sports fans media only use championship rings as a barometer for greatness.

Well, Mahomes might do both — ignore the jinx and win more rings than Tom Brady.

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.