Dustin Baker’s 2024 NFL Win-Loss Predictions

Dustin Baker |

Sep 1, 2024

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) flips after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter of the NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Francisco 49ers at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, Oct 29, 2023. © Albert Cesare/The Enquier / USA TODAY NETWORK.

The 2024 NFL season will feature the Kansas City Chiefs‘ quest to become the first team ever to three-peat. And oddsmakers (+550) believe they’ll do it.

Dustin Baker’s 2024 NFL Win-Loss Predictions

Thinking outside of the box, considering dark horses, roster strength, team age, and parity in the NFL, these are 2024 NFL standing predictions.

** = Wildcard Playoff Participant

AFC East

Vikings Opponents Have Shifted Massively in Recent Weeks — Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports.

New York Jets: 11-6
**Buffalo Bills: 10-7
Miami Dolphins: 9-8
New England Patriots: 4-13

The Jets are a quarterback away from effectuating a playoff push, and Aaron Rodgers, in theory, should remain healthy this time. The Bills lost the guts of their defense, but Josh Allen will drag Buffalo to relevance, hell or high water. Miami’s defense is too suspect for all-out Super Bowl contendership. And virtually everyone knows that 2024 is a growth year for New England.

AFC North

Dustin Baker — Cincinnati wide receiver Tee Higgins (5) gets his hand on a deep pass in the third quarter during a Week 17 NFL football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The Kansas City Chiefs won, 25-17. © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK.

Cincinnati Bengals: 11-6
Baltimore Ravens: 9-8
Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-8
Cleveland Browns: 6-11

Cincinnati will thrive with a healthy Joe Burrow. More on that later. The Ravens played really lousy with a golden opportunity in a home AFC Championship last year; some onlookers have lost faith. Pittsburgh will be good enough for the customary 9-8. The enterprise will crumble in Cleveland after overachievement last year, mainly because of the 2023 defense.

AFC South

Houston Texans: 12-5
**Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-7
Tennessee Titans: 7-10
Indianapolis Colts: 6-11

Houston will avoid a sophomore slump from the head coach and QB1, while Jacksonville climbs back to contention after an embarrassing December collapse in 2023. Tennessee would be in a better spot if it didn’t fire Mike Vrabel. The Colts still need a maturation season from Anthony Richardson, which will happen in 2024.

AFC West

**Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5
**Los Angeles Chargers: 9-8
Denver Broncos: 7-10
Las Vegas Raiders: 5-12

The Chiefs don’t need a caption. Jim Harbaugh’s system doesn’t set the world on fire right away, but he does have Justin Herbert to steer the ship, resulting in a Wildcard spot. Denver will spin the 7-10 positively after a decent rookie campaign from Bo Nix. Las Vegas plays hot potato at quarterback between Garnder Minshew and Aidan O’Connell all season.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles: 12-5
**Dallas Cowboys: 9-8
Washington Commanders 6-11
New York Giants: 5-12

Philadelphia should rebound from its strange faceplant last year; it has the roster for it. The Cowboys will take a step back, basically because they didn’t do much to improve the roster in the offseason. Washington is one year out from contendership if Jayden Daniels is legitimate. New York will put its fate in Daniel Jones’ hands, which seems spooky.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers fans yell as their pick is made in the second round of the 2024 NFL draft in Detroit on Friday, April 26, 2024. © Eric Seals / USA TODAY NETWORK.

Green Bay Packers: 11-6
**Detroit Lions: 10-7
Chicago Bears: 7-10
Minnesota Vikings: 7-10

Green Bay always finds a way to float near the top, while Detroit might regress a bit because of the weight of expectations. The Bears built a wonderful roster this offseason, depending on Caleb Williams’ game-readiness. The Vikings’ win-loss record solely rests on Sam Darnold’s shoulders, a man who has not delivered through six NFL seasons.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: 10-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-8
New Orleans Saints: 6-11
Carolina Panthers: 5-12

If the Falcons can skate a mediocre defense, the offense is too explosive for anything less than a winning record. Tampa Bay didn’t change much this offseason but might have a target on its back after reaching the playoffs. The Saints are a huge question mark with Dennis Allens at head coach. Carolina finishing 5-12 would be a step in the right direction.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers: 13-4
**Arizona Cardinals: 10-7
Los Angeles Rams: 9-8
Seattle Seahawks: 7-10

The 49ers’ roster construction should be studied because they miss on so many 1st-Round picks — and then it just doesn’t matter. Our postseason surprise team is the Cardinals. Los Angeles will remain sturdy because of infrastructure and Sean McVay. The Seahawks are mysterious without Pete Carroll.

AFC Playoff Seeds

Chiefs
Texans
Bengals
Jets
Bills
Jaguars
Chargers

NFC Playoff Seeds

49ers
Eagles
Packers
Falcons
Lions
Cardinals
Cowboys

AFC Playoffs

Texans over Chargers
Bengals over Jaguars
Jets over Bills

Chiefs over Jets
Bengals over Texans

Bengals over Chiefs

NFC Playoffs

Eagles over Cowboys
Packers over Cardinals
Lions over Falcons

Lions over 49ers
Eagles over Packers

Eagles over Packers

Super Bowl LVII

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Super Bowl Champion

Cincinnati Bengals

Also Read:
Beloved Former Vikings QB Out for the Season

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.