Aug 10, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Harrison Phillips (97) after the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.
It’s the time of year to roll out your predictions.
Last year, I optimistically, as proved, predicted 10 wins for the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings would only win seven games in a season where a slow start and injuries to Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins proved too much to overcome. However, I did predict 11 out of the 17 results correctly, which wasn’t a bad effort.
The Vikings are quite difficult to predict this year. A lot depends on the level of quarterback play they get out of Sam Darnold and/or J.J. McCarthy and whether Brian Flores can produce a more consistent Vikings defense. Minnesota isn’t burdened by the weight of expectation this season and is seen as rank outsiders to hoist the Lombardi trophy in February.
However, they will surprise many with their competitiveness throughout the season. I think the offense will be dangerous, but the big question is, what can Brian Flores get out of his defensive unit? What does all this mean in terms of wins?
My final win-loss prediction for the 2023 Vikings is 8-9.
It’s not unheard of for a team to make the playoffs with eight wins, but I don’t expect that to be enough for the Vikings. It might not be enough to keep them off the bottom of what looks like a strong division. However, being competitive and winning several games while introducing McCarthy into the fray would constitute a successful season in Minnesota.
It’s a tough opening stretch of games for the Vikings, and the opening game at MetLife Stadium against the New York Giants represents the best chance of a win. Home games against the 49ers, Texans, and Jets are difficult propositions, with a trip to Lambeau Field thrown in for good measure.
I have Darnold starting the first five games of the season and starting with a win. However, despite my expectation that the Vikings will be competitive, I can’t see them picking up a win in those other games. I foresee four straight losses that will bring about the change everyone will be waiting for.
Week 1: Win at Giants 1-0
Week 2: Lose vs 49ers 1-1
Week3: Lose vs Texans 1-2
Week 4: Lose at Packers 1-3
Week 5: Lose vs Jets 1-4
Week 6: Bye
After the bye week, it will be McCarthy’s turn to take the reigns of the offense. I expect Daronld to play reasonably well, but sitting with a 1-4 record, it’s time to focus on the long-term future. The calls for McCarthy to get his shot will be getting louder every week from Week 2, and Kevin O’Connell will finally answer the calls as we go into Week 7.
Week 7: Win vs Lions 2-4
Week 8: Lose at Rams 2-5
Week 9: Win vs Colts 3-5
Week 10: Lose at Jaguars 3-6
Week 11 Win at Titans 4-6
Week 12: Lose at Bears 4-7
In front of an amped-up US Bank Stadium, I predict McCarthy will deliver a big win against the Detroit Lions that will excite everyone.
It will be the start of a series of win-one-loss-one games over the middle portion of the season as the rookie settles into the NFL. It isn’t going to be perfect, but the Vikings as a team should have enough to beat the Colts and Titans.
Then, we enter the final stretch of six games. I have the Vikings recovering from 1-4 to 4-7 with a run of three home games to come. Winning all three would bring Minnesota’s season back to parity, and I believe they can do it. A week 14 matchup of McCarthy vs. Cousins has the makings of an interesting storyline.
Week 13: Win vs Cardinals 5-7
Week 14: Win vs Falcons 6-7
Week 15: Win vs Bears 7-7
Weeks 16: Lose at Seahawks 7-8
Week 17: Win vs Packers 8-8
Week 18: Lose at Lions 8-9
At 7-7 going into the last three games, the Vikings should be able to stay in the mix for at least the last wildcard place. A game at home to Green Bay sandwiched between games on the road at Seattle, and Detroit is a tricky finish. I back the Vikings to win their home game but to fall short in a competitive manner on the road. That leaves us with an 8-9 record and Minnesota right in the middle of the pack.
It also means the Vikings have a 7-5 record after McCarthy takes over at QB, which is plenty of reason for optimism heading into 2025.