Adam New’s Win-Loss Prediction for 2023 Vikings

Dec 9, 2021; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings fullback C.J. Ham. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports.

In 2022, the Vikings surprised most by taking the NFC North division title with 13 wins. I worried my preseason prediction last year of 10 wins might be a touch optimistic not so. With an uncommon amount of one-score wins, Kevin O’Connell’s team rode the wave of momentum to the playoffs where it all came crashing down disappointingly.

Adam New’s Win-Loss Prediction for 2023 Vikings

What should the expectations be for this season? With a new defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, in charge of improving the team’s weakest area, turning the Vikings defense around will grow Flores’ already fine reputation. The Vikings hope to defend their division title and again play playoff football in January. In a division that is not particularly strong, it is a realistic goal. All offseason, I have been fixated on the 10-win mark. If Flores can improve the defense drastically in a short time, the Vikings can do better, but I have to see that in action.

My final win-loss prediction for the 2023 Vikings is 10-7.

Will that be enough to win the division? It could be close. I don’t think Detroit, Green Bay, or Chicago are teams that will win more than 10 games, but it will be a closely fought division 10 wins might just be enough.

Week 1-6

Aug 26, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) reacts after a game against the Arizona Cardinals at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.

So, where are these 10 wins coming from, and what are the seven games I predict the Vikings will fall short? The Vikings have some tough matchups in the opening block of six games. The team must come out of these games with at least three wins.

Week 1: Win vs Buccaneers – 1-0

Week 2: Lose at Eagles – 1-1

Week 3: Lose vs Chargers – 1-2

Week 4: Win at Panthers – 2-2

Week 5: Lose vs Chiefs – 2-3

Week 6: Win at Bears – 3-3

I have Minnesota splitting the first six games with three wins and three losses. Having the two teams that made the Super Bowl and would be expecting to be there again in the first five games is a tough start. The home game against the LA Chargers should be exciting and close. That’s the one the Vikings need to win to make the start even better than I predict. Games against teams like the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Bears must be won if the Vikings hope to be in the playoffs.

Week 7-12

Aug 5, 2023; Eagan, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings safety Harrison Smith (22) during training camp at Twin Cities Orthopedic Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Week 7: Lose vs 49ers – 3-4

Week 8: Lose at Packers – 3-5

Week 9: Win at Falcons – 4-5

Week 10: Win vs Saints – 5-5

Week 11: Win at Broncos – 6-5

Week 12: Win vs Bears – 7-5

In recent meetings, San Francisco has dominated Minnesota in the trenches, and I can’t see that changing this year. Follow that up with defeat in Lambeau Field, and the Vikings are in a tough spot. The good news? The Vikings will bounce back with four straight wins heading into the bye week. Minnesota will return for the final five games well-rested, with a winning record behind them. The playoffs are in sight.

Week 13-18

Minnesota Vikings place kicker Greg Joseph (1) kicks a field goal at the beginning of the second quarter against the Titans at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn., Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023. © Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK.

Week 13: Bye

Week 14: Win at Raiders – 8-5

Week 15: Lose at Bengals – 8-6

Week 16: Win vs Lions – 9-6

Week 17: Win vs Packers – 10-6

Week 18: Lose at Lions – 10-7

Three wins from the last five games get Minnesota into double figures for the wins column. That should be good enough for playoff football and possibly a division championship. I’m not convinced any Vikings NFC North rivals will win more than 10 games. The three divisional games to end the regular season will likely prove pivotal, and the Vikings need to win the two home games before going into the regular season finale at Ford Field.