10 Predictions on Kirk Cousins’ Future with Vikings

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The Minnesota Vikings’ first offseason domino, with no debates from anybody, starts with the free-agency decision on Kirk Cousins. The man is scheduled to hit the open market in four weeks, but Minnesota could disallow it by re-signing him.

10 Predictions on Kirk Cousins’ Future with Vikings

The topic is hot-button among Vikings fans, so we asked our writers to weigh in with predictions. These are their responses.

1. Cousins Stays | 1-Year, $36M

The Vikings Will Have One Particular and Major Free Agent Decision in 2023
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Prediction Maker: Josh Frey

The Vikings are still plenty capable of being competitive in the NFC. While they could look to draft a QB this spring, it may be wise to let that player sit and lean for a year. As a result, Cousins is back in purple.

2. Cousins Stays | 2-Year, $70M

10 Predictions on Kirk
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Prediction Maker: Kyle Joudry

The media hubbub turns out to be precisely that: media hubbub. I’m doubling down: Kirk Cousins returns at two years and $35 million in fully guaranteed cash (per season, of course).

3. Cousins Stays | 2-Year, $75M

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Prediction Maker: Ali Siddiqui

Cousins will get extended for two years and around $75 million.

4. Cousins Stays | 2-Year, $82M

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Prediction Maker: Cody Spears

Cousins will re-sign with the Vikings on a two-year deal worth $82 million. Per Spotrac, that would put him right above Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers in average annual salary.

5. Cousins Stays | 3-Year, $110M

show Cousins the door
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Prediction Maker: Wes Johnson

If the 49ers lose, it would be one of the top destinations along with Atlanta, as there is mutual history with both coaching staffs.

Ultimately, though, he resigns in Minnesota for three years and $110 million — fully guaranteed. The Vikings will want a two-year deal, but the only way he re-signs is with multiple years. The compromise is with the guaranteed money. KC forgoes more average yearly money to “finish” his career as a Viking.

6. Cousins Leaves | Joins PIT

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Prediction Maker: Adam New

Kirk Cousins heads to the AFC. Specifically the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mike Tomlin has kept the Steelers competitive in a tough division despite having Mitchell Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, and Kenny Pickett at QB in recent times. The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016; if they want that to change in 2024, they need to call on Captain Kirk.

7. Cousins Leaves | Joins PIT

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Prediction Maker: Janik Eckardt

Kirk Cousins will leave the Vikings after six years with the organization. The player and the organization can’t find common ground in the important questions besides the salary: contract length and guaranteed money. He’ll join the Steelers.

8. Cousins Leaves | Joins ATL

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Prediction Maker: Dustin Baker

This one is truly agonizing to predict. It’s an honest-to-goodness coinflip. Changing your mind tomorrow about the prediction is expected.

In the end, the Vikings are in the middle of a rebuild, and 35- or 36-year-old quarterbacks generally aren’t the solutions when a team overhauls its roster. Cousins wants multiple years on his next contract; Minnesota’s budget screams for a rookie quarterback on an affordable deal.

The breaking point is the total number of years, and the Atlanta Falcons provide that to Cousins in the ballpark of three years and $120 million. Cousins, alas, departs Minnesota, and the Vikings trade up the board on draft night for Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.

9. Cousins Leaves | Joins ATL

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Prediction Maker: Cole Smith

The Vikings will let Kirk walk this year, and he’ll sign with the Falcons. His wife Julie is from the area, and the Vikings have been clearing the books for several years. If they didn’t extend him last year, why would they this year when he’s another year older and coming off an Achilles tear?

10. Cousins Leaves | Joins ATL

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Prediction Maker: Ted Schwerzler

Kirk Cousins needs the Vikings more than he currently believes, and that’s enough to see him head elsewhere for another big payday. Short of signing a reasonable two-year deal, he will be quarterbacking the Atlanta Falcons in 2024.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.

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