Sep 15, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) fakes a hand off to running back Aaron Jones (33) against the San Francisco 49ers in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.
Shortly after moving on from Kirk Cousins, the Vikings’ new QB strategy came into focus.
Sam Darnold would be given the first shot at taking over as the starting passer after agreeing to a single-season, $10 million contract. True, he hadn’t lived up to expectations as the No. 3 selection, but there was ample talent in his arm and a year of sitting at Kyle Shanhan’s feet to soak up wisdom. Even better, Minnesota went on to sink the No. 10 pick into J.J. McCarthy, giving the team a nice mix of veteran and rookie upside. Does that balance exist just in 2024 or will 2025 see an unexpected twist?
Right now, the only quarterback under contract for 2025 is Mr. McCarthy.
No doubt, there’s a ton of confidence in what McCarthy is going to be capable of accomplishing, but there’s also reason for concern. The rookie has missed his entire rookie season due to a torn meniscus. Recently, the news emerged that there needed to be a second procedure to help with the knee swelling.
Minnesota thus finds itself with upside but no certainty for the young quarterback. Mentally, growth; physically, uncertainty. Can the Vikings really afford to have just a humdrum QB2?
That’s where the twist comes in, folks. Is Sam Darnold going to come back in 2025? Over on The Vikings Gazette, there was a consideration of that precise possibility.
Consider some of the rationale that was written prior to Darnold’s strong outing in Week 11: “The Vikings have proven that they can win with Darnold. Quite convincingly, in fact. And while the recent play is concerning, the recent play could also be a factor that makes Darnold’s return more plausible. Minnesota believes in Darnold even if the play isn’t always perfect; does the imperfect play help to drive his asking price down in the offseason?”
The follow-up thought: “If so, the Vikings could roll into 2025 with Darnold & McCarthy back at the top of the ticket. May the best man win. And, in the end, that could be Darnold. If not, then McCarthy will get the nod as Darnold functions as one of the game’s preeminent backups.”
Consider, as well, how the numbers look at this stage in the season. A chart to simplify things:
As for a passer rating, Darnold find himself as a satisfyingly-even 100.0. On PFF, Darnold is coming off a game where he had a blistering grade of 90.8, functioning as a great bounce-back effort from his game versus the Jaguars the week prior.
Even more encouraging, the season grade on PFF is sitting at 78.9, which is 12th-best among all passers. Can the Vikings allow that kind of talent to walk away for an impressive sophomore who hasn’t proven anything yet?
In all likelihood, Sam Darnold is going to have some options. Teams around the NFL crave a quarterback who can fling the ball all over the field, elude pressure, and stack up wins. What remains to be seen, however, is if Darnold can do those things apart from the context in Minnesota.
Moreover, we still don’t know for certain what Minnesota’s QB strategy will be once the offseason arrives. Yes, there’s likely to be some teams interested in signing the 27-year-old Darnold with the hope that he continues on his ascent, but the possibility exists that another year or two with the Vikings is in everyone’s best interest.
After all, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN suggested that precise possibility recently: “Darnold and Minnesota are 7-2 together, so entertaining a bridge deal while the team continues to develop McCarthy behind the scenes shouldn’t be completely off the table. Darnold’s decision-making on the field down the stretch will determine a lot about his future.”
The best guess is that J.J. McCarthy is going to take over as the top passer in 2025. Don’t outright overlook the possibility, though, of a scenario where Sam Darnold sticks around to keep refining his craft and keep the Vikings heading in the right direction.
Darnold’s Vikings are 8-2 as they march toward a road contest with the Bears in Week 12.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference, PFF, and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter, as a co-host for Notes from the North, and as the proprietor at The Vikings Gazette, a humble Vikings Substack.