Aug 12, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills fans cheer for their team in the first quarter of a pre-season game against the Indianapolis Colts at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports.
The NFL is undergoing its most topsy-turvy and debatable MVP award build-up in years.
No absolutely clear frontrunner busted out of the pack until last week, instead resulting in a month-long debate involving players like Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Tyreek Hill, and Christian McCaffrey.
Most of those men have reasonable cases for the award, or at least did at some point in 2023. Lamar Jackson is the odds-on frontrunner to take home the prestigious hardware, and it will be quite fair if that’s the ultimate outcome.
However, if the Buffalo Bills chip off the Miami Dolphins this weekend, Josh Allen should fetch the league’s most coveted individual prize.
In a season when Stefon Diggs has disappeared — nobody knows why — in the last handful of games, Allen’s head coach Sean McDermott has encountered some odd controversies, and the Bills’ season felt dead in the water, Allen is on the cusp of dragging the Bills to an AFC East crown.
And that’s after many believed they wouldn’t reach the postseason about a month ago.
While Jackson voters have a strong case for his MVP candidacy — really strong when one uses the words Most Valuable Player in strict textual form — Allen’s resume is a bit more impressive. Overall, it’s the touchdowns, stupid.
Jackson has produced 29 total touchdowns, with 3,678 passing yards and 821 by leg. That’s 4,499 passing and rushing yards through 16 games (and Jackson won’t play this weekend because the Ravens’ playoff spot is wrapped up).
Yet, with Allen perhaps days away from guiding Buffalo to a home playoff game, he’s notched 42 touchdowns — or 13 more than Jackson. The other stuff? Well, Allen has tallied 3,947 passing yards and 457 on the ground. That’s 4,404 yards — with 300+ probably on the way when Buffalo takes on Miami in Week 18.
This is the comparison:
Josh Allen = 4,404 Total Yards | 42 TDs
Lamar Jackson = 4,499 Total Yards | 29 TDs
On the whole, Jackson is heavily favored to win the MVP honor, and few will be too upset. He has roughly -1,000 odds at the moment. Allen is at +3000.
The strange part, though, is that MVP voters have been waiting for a few seasons to hand Allen the MVP trophy, but something like Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers got in the way. Now, in 2023, there’s quite an astonishing case to hand the prize to Allen if the Bills win the AFC East, but Allen-as-MVP is mostly crickets.
By the numbers, Allen deserves it over Jackson.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.