The Vikings Have Some Problems, but This Guy Isn’t One of Them.
The NFL is a quarterback-driven entity, especially per the media’s presentation.
The Vikings Might Have Some Problems, but This Guy Isn’t One of Them.
So, after the Minnesota Vikings lost two games following a sweet 5-0 start, some have looked around and wondered if quarterback Sam Darnold has lost his sizzle.
Minnesota indeed has warts, but Darnold is not one of them. The man is still overachieving per “Sam Darnold standards,” and his performance through eight games should be enough to inspire hope for the rest of the season.
Darnold ranks ninth in the business per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added. For perspective, former Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins ranked 17th per the same metric during his final full campaign in Minnesota (2022).
He also ranks fifth in the NFL with 14 touchdown passes. Scaled to a 17-game season, this is Darnold’s projected pace:
- 3,910 Passing Yards
- 34 Passing TDs
- 12 Interceptions
- 67.2% Completion
- 107.2 Passer Rating
If Darnold’s injured teammate, J.J. McCarthy, were producing this stat line, every Vikings fan in the world would be doing cartwheels. But because Minnesota has lost two straight and Darnold’s production has dipped a bit compared to his Week 1-3 dealings, the Darnold steam has faded.
However, he’s doing his part. The guy would never morph into a truly elite quarterback. He’s just not that good. Elite is reserved for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen — and Lamar Jackson if one accounts for the rushing yards. Darnold isn’t there and won’t get there.
Thirty-four passing touchdowns, on the other hand, with about 4,000 passing yards, are more than satisfactory to deem Darnold a worthwhile experiment. Those are Cousins-like numbers and then some.
It’s just that Darnold has reputational baggage to battle. For some reason, when he played like the league MVP in September, the masses thought he would continue that pace forever. No luck.
So, what went wrong amid the two losses in 11 days? Easy — the defense stopped working.
Vikings Defense,
NFL Ranking,
per EPA/Play:
Week 1-5: 1st
Week 6-8: 28th
The problem? The pass rush. A lack of pressure on Jared Goff (Detroit Lions) and Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) has caused the passing defense to plunge — from first to worst in a hurry.
Vikings Defense,
NFL Ranking,
per DEF Passing EPA/Play:
First 5 Games: 1st
Last 2 Games: 32nd
If defensive coordinator Brian Flores can fix his ailing defense, fans can get back to DarnoldMania because wins will accompany his fancy stats.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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