One Outfit Claims Vikings Might Have to Revise QB Plan
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold leads the NFL in touchdown passes (11) and ranks third leaguewide per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added.
One Outfit Claims Vikings Might Have to Revise QB Plan
Through four games, he’s certifiably a Top 5 NFL passer, an outcome few expected heading into the regular season. At best, optimistic onlookers pegged Darnold for a “Baker Mayfield-like” reclamation season.
Now, however, Darnold is far exceeding what Mayfield even did in 2023. Darnold has led Minnesota to its first 4-0 start since 2016, has not encountered any notable rough patches, and is conducting his reclamation majesty for $10 million a season — chump change for an NFL quarterback, especially one with his recent performance.
And Darnold’s four-game sample is enough to turn heads and indicate for some that the “other” Vikings quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, may be in jeopardy when his meniscus heals.
Bleacher Report advanced the theory after Week 4 when the Vikings defeated the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, 31-29.
“The Minnesota Vikings signed Sam Darnold this offseason as the bridge to a quarterback-to-be-drafted. That rookie ended up being Michigan product and 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy, who was subsequently lost for the year with a preseason meniscus tear,” BR’s staff wrote Monday. “McCarthy’s injury ensured that Darnold would be the quarterback of the present. After Sunday’s 31-29 win over the rival Green Bay Packers, Minnesota may have to consider the possibility of him being the quarterback of the future too.”
McCarthy played incredibly well at training camp and in one preseason game, perhaps suggesting he’d win the QB1 job out of the gate over Darnold. But then he tore his meniscus in August and hit the shelf for all of his rookie season. The competition ended.
“The Vikings won’t simply turn the page on McCarthy, of course. They used a first-round pick to get him, and they have him on a rookie contract for at least the next four years. They could choose, however, to develop him over the next couple of years instead of handing him the keys in 2025,” BR added.
“Much will depend on the cost of retaining Darnold, as he’s playing his way into being one of the most coveted free agents of 2025. Yet, keeping him will have to be considered if Darnold helps lead the Vikings on a deep playoff run—which, at this point, feels entirely possible.”
While it’s neat to have Darnold performing like an elite quarterback, the element of money will reign supreme when the 2025 offseason rolls around. If Darnold’s production does not relent, he will be in line for a contract at or north of $40 million per season, and if Minnesota took the plunge with an extension, it would be right back in the “Kirk Cousins situation” — paying a good quarterback a hefty salary cap sum and bit hamstrung to fill out the rest of the roster.
Vikings fans will enjoy 2024 no matter what happens, but unless Darnold chooses to re-sign in Minnesota on a team-friendly deal, the organization will likely lean full tilt into the McCarthy era instead of paying Darnold $45-$50 million.
It drafted McCarthy for a reason.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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