Here’s Sam Darnold’s Main Malfunction

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

Because of a terribly disheartening injury to Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, veteran journeyman passer Sam Darnold will lead the purple team in 2024.

Here’s Sam Darnold’s Main Malfunction

McCarthy cannot return in 2024. He is on injured reserve and cannot be removed from it this season.

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.

So, Vikings fans will place all hope in Darnold, the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. And only one thing can stop Darnold from a career rebirth — turnovers.

That’s it.

Darnold possesses all the traits of a coveted QB1 regarding arm strength, accuracy, some mobility, and leadership. To date, however, he simply gives the ball to the other team too often — which, inconveniently, was the Vikings’ undoing in 2023. The squad ranked second-to-last in 2023 per giveaways (interceptions and fumbles gift-wrapped to the other team).

preseason
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

Yes, you read that right: Minnesota is coming off a season when it vows to fix the turnover problem but will employ a turnover-prone QB1. On paper, the strategy is goofy, but Darnold was never supposed to be the Vikings’ long-term solution. That’s McCarthy’s job.

Still, head coach Kevin O’Connell will trust Darnold to right the ship via fixing the turnover woes while hoping other ball carriers don’t fumble the rock.

sam darnold
New Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold at June 2024 minicamp. Eagan, Minnesota. TCO Performance Center. Darnold has played with the New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and San Francisco 49ers in his six-year career.

These are the raw numbers:

Most INTs + Fumbles,
Per Game,
Since 2018:
(min. 35 games)

  1. Justin Fields (1.70)
  2. Jameis Winston (1.64)
  3. Josh Allen (1.45)
  4. Trevor Lawrence (1.44)
  5. Carson Wentz (1.43)
  6. Daniel Jones (1.43)
  7. Sam Darnold (1.42)
  8. Matt Ryan (1.42)
  9. Kyler Murray (1.35)
  10. Baker Mayfield (1.32)

Josh Allen is the only quarterback who can consistently get away with fumbling the rock and tossing it to defensive backs. He’s the exception to the rule. Allen is the present-day Favre — his turnovers are adorable. Nobody else gets that treatment, not by a longshot.

Darnold can assuredly call upon his bevy of weapons (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson, Jalen Nailor, etc.) in Minnesota — and he probably will with success — but minimizing turnovers is equally essential.

Remember those opening-drive fumbles courtesy of Vikings running backs, tight ends, wide receivers, and quarterbacks? They added up — to the tune of Minnesota as the second-most clumsy team in the business per turnovers. In that vein, Minnesota hopes to rectify its turnover woes with a quarterback notorious for … turnover woes.

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

There’s also the Kevin O’Connell stat. It’s as open-and-shut as it gets. When teams led by O’Connell protect the football, they pretend they’re the 2007 New England Patriots. Yet, when O’Connell-led teams lose the turnover battle, they turn into the 2023 Carolina Panthers.

Vikings’ Record under Kevin O’Connell,
Breaking Even or Winning Turnover Battle:

17-0

Vikings’ Record under Kevin O’Connell,
Losing Turnover Battle:

3-14

If Darnold protects the football, the Vikings will likely conduct a winning season. The contrary — Darnold being Darnold — will result in an upside-down record and Darnold likely searching for QB2 jobs next March, not more QB1 auditions.

It’s really that simple. The turnovers.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL. 

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.