ESPN’s Kirk Cousins Theory … Is Really Somethin’
Kirk Cousins just arrived in Atlanta, and some already believe his exit is imminent.
ESPN’s Kirk Cousins Theory … Is Really Somethin’
Cousins became a Faclon in March, life was good, and he was on deck to unlock a flock of weapons in Georgia. The Falcons had a shot at reaching the postseason for the first time since 2017. Four months later, Cousins is the subject of one-and-done rumors.
That’s right. This week, ESPN’s Dan Graziano analyzed some of the NFL’s hottest talkers, including Dak Prescott’s future in Dallas and the New York Jets already being the team to beat in the AFC East. He also sized up the theory that suggests Cousins could be on his way out of Atlanta and called it “not an overreaction.”
“The short answer is yes, though it wouldn’t be the cleanest move ever,” Graziano wrote about a Cousins-Falcons split after this season.
“Cousins is guaranteed $27.5 million for 2025, and he has a $10 million 2026 roster bonus that becomes fully guaranteed at the start of the 2025 league year this coming March. So any acquiring team would be on the hook for $37.5 million — more than reasonable for a good starting quarterback in 2025. There’s no doubt that if the Falcons made Cousins available next spring, teams would be interested.”
Cousins and his agent were baffled by the Falcons’ draft choice of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in April, specifically because they weren’t informed about Atlanta’s plan until it was on the draft clock. In fact, the whole Penix Jr.-to-Atlanta situation totally fell out of the sky and will remain one of the most shocking draft moments in history.
“From the Falcons’ end, cutting Cousins after this season would saddle them with a $65 million dead-money cap charge in 2025 and mean they will have paid him $90 million for one season — so that’s pretty unlikely,” Graziano added about release and trade possibilities. “Trading Cousins would mean a $37.5 million dead-money charge for 2025, and they would have paid him $62.5 million for one season. That’s also not ideal, but if Atlanta really believes in Penix and thinks he’s ready at that point, it’s not prohibitive.”
Minnesota didn’t re-up with Cousins because it was time for a new era, and the veteran quarterback is never affordable.
Under Cousins, the Vikings reached the postseason twice in six years, accruing just one playoff win — five years ago. J.J. McCarthy is now the quarterback of the future after Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah nabbed him with the 10th overall pick. Minnesota also signed Sam Darnold as a patchover quarterback to McCarthy.
Whether Cousins stays or goes in 2025 probably depends on his team’s outcome in 2024. If he produces his steady 4,000+ yard statline with 30+ touchdowns in addition to a playoff appearance or win, the 35-year-old will likely stay for longer than a year.
But the Graziano theory may be validated if Atlanta finishes on the outside looking in for the postseason tournament.
Cousins and the Falcons have the league’s easiest schedule in 2024, which doesn’t hurt.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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