Betting Odds for Kirk Cousins Just Don’t Make Sense

Vikings and Falcons
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For the first time in six years, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins could be on the verge of free agency, scheduled to hit the open market in four weeks if not re-signed by the purple team.

Betting Odds for Kirk Cousins Just Don’t Make Sense

From the Vikings’ standpoint, severing ties with Cousins might make sense. He’s recovering from a torn Achilles, will turn 36 in August, and reportedly wants a contract at or north of $40 million per season. Too, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell will likely want a young quarterback to develop before too long.

Vikings QB Situation
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports.

No matter what, this offseason or next seems like a logical breaking point with Cousins; it’s just the when that has fans wondering as of mid-February.

Strangely, though, if Cousins finds the exit sign, betting odds for his next team don’t quite add up. The frontrunner to land his services — with the Vikings taken into consideration — is his old team, the Washington Commanders.

Betting Odds for Kirk
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These are the Bookies odds at the moment:

  • Washington Commanders +400
  • Minnesota Vikings +425
  • Las Vegas Raiders +500
  • New England Patriots +600
  • Atlanta Falcons +750
  • Denver Broncos +1200
  • Seattle Seahawks +1400
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +1500
  • The Field +650

Aside from Washington at the top, the pecking order isn’t too weird. Yet, Washington as the pace-setter is bizarre because that organization has brand new leadership, and onboarding Cousins would feel like a blast from the past. The Commanders drafted Cousins in 2012 and employed him until he joined the Vikings in 2018.

Would Washington, fully equipped with the draft’s 2nd overall pick and fresh personalities in charge, dip into the past for a veteran quarterback with a mending Achilles? The team would really pass on Drake Maye (North Carolina) or Jayden Daniels (LSU) to get the band back together with Cousins at $40-$45 million?

The Commanders Key Players vs. Vikings 
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports.

It doesn’t seem right.

Of course, Cousins was on pace for 5,000 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions last year, so some team — maybe even the Vikings — will experience a productive passer in 2024. In that vein, sure, Washington should examine Cousins’ availability and price. But generally speaking, either the Vikings or a team like the Falcons should probably lead the pack as Cousins’ next destination.

Cousins told Sky Sports about two weeks ago about his impending free agency, “Many people who ask including friends and family are surprised conversations don’t really begin until March. I would love to know where I’m going. I would love to get those conversations going now, but I’m just sitting at home watching the playoffs and don’t have much going on apart from rehab.”

Is the Competitive
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According to him, a decision will likely arrive in March. Cousins has always said he’d prefer rejoining the Vikings for a seventh season but has been more open to a change of scenery in recent weeks than any time in the last six years.

And if sportsbooks get it right, the Commanders are evidently the odds-on favorite to win the sweepstakes.

NFL free agency begins on March 11th with “legal tampering.” So less than four weeks away.

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).

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