Sep 22, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Aaron Jones (33) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) against the Houston Texans in the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.
On September 2nd, six days before the Minnesota Vikings’ first regular season game of 2024, ESPN forecasted Kevin O’Connell’s team as the worst in the NFL, trending toward the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Fast forward six weeks, and Minnesota is one of two undefeated teams entering Week 6, sharing the title with the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
ESPN utilizes a Football Power Index (FPI), a predictive metric that determines wins, losses, and team efficiency. For starters, here’s the official definition of the Football Power Index: “A measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”
Minnesota ranked 25th per FPI before the season began but has climbed 17 spots to No. 8 after five weeks. Not bad.
Back in early September, ESPN’s Seth Walder claimed Minnesota would end up with next year’s first overall pick, a bittersweet prediction for a squad that lost its rookie quarterback to a torn meniscus in August.
“There was hope, back in the halcyon days of September, that quarterback Sam Darnold would finally figure it out after spending the 2023 season with Kyle Shanahan before playing in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme in 2024,” Walder wrote. “How naïve we were. Darnold did not, in fact, figure it out. The Minnesota Vikings’ offense crumbled while the rest of the league came up with adjustments to defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ relentless blitzes.”
The Vikings haven’t been awarded the draft’s first overall pick in 56 years.
“The result? A paltry four-win season,” Walder added. “But with the losing came hope in the form of the No. 1 overall pick. With their quarterback already in hand — J.J. McCarthy is the QB of the future here, despite his right meniscus tear — the Vikings enter the offseason in position to deal the No. 1 pick to a QB-needy team for a series of selections that will bolster the roster for an immediate turnaround. The present is bleak in Minnesota, but the future is bright.”
The Vikings’ defense ranks first in the NFL per DVOA and EPA/Play through five games, while the offense has tumbled lately, settling at No. 14 per EPA/Play as of October 10th.
Of course, Vikings fans want to know how the team plays exiting the bye when it hosts the Detroit Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium in 10 days. That game will provide a glimpse of Minnesota’s true Super Bowl contendership mettle.
Yet, one item is certain: the purple team won’t obtain the first overall pick in the draft, as originally suggested by ESPN’s FPI. It has a better chance to earn the last pick in the 1st Round, in fact.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.