2 Things Will Determine if the Vikings Are Any Good in 2024
After six years, the Minnesota Vikings severed ties with Kirk Cousins, prompting the soon-to-be 36-year-old to sign with the Atlanta Falcons.
2 Things Will Determine if the Vikings Are Any Good in 2024
For replacements, Minnesota signed Sam Darnold from free agency for one year and $10 million while drafting Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy six weeks later. There’s no other way to define it — it’s a new era in Minneapolis.
Of course, nobody knows for sure if the change(s) at quarterback will result in improvement. Minnesota finished 7-10 last year after Cousins missed half the season due to injury. The 2024 campaign could be a flyover season to reach 2025 when McCarthy, for example, can take the team on a run — if he’s any good. Rookie quarterbacks don’t reach or win Super Bowls, so many Vikings fans have already looked to 2025 and beyond.
As for this season, though, two things will determine if the club is any good. This analysis operates under the pretense that Brian Flores’ defense will be decent or better after ranking 11th per DVOA in 2023. If one questions whether the defense can thrive, well, it would be three things to determine the Vikings’ fate.
Otherwise, here are the two.
Repairing the Turnover Problem
The Vikings’ turnover differential was the second-worst in football last year at -12. Only the Washington Commanders checked in lower at -14. And most teams that scrape the bottom of the barrel per turnover differential don’t reach the postseason.
Gifting turnovers to the opposition is like losing pints of blood. It never results in anything fruitful. There’s also a problem — or a variance — regarding the Vikings and turnovers. Under Kevin O’Connell, the turnover differential, almost alone, decides ballgame outcomes.
When Minnesota protects the football or holds serve, it wins. It’s undefeated. O’Connell Ball fetches wins when ball security is paramount.
The problem? The Vikings ranked second-to-last in giveaways last year. You might remember all the 1st-quarter and opening drive fumbles. Those added up and essentially doomed the 2023 season. Even if Darnold or McCarthy are average producers, minimizing giveaways can propel the purple team to a winning record.
For context, no team has a turnover differential variance as wild as the Vikings. It’s tempting to think, “Well, every team’s chances of losing spike when they turn the ball over.”
Yes, but O’Connell’s 17-0 vs. 3-14 split is statistically mind-boggling and standalone.
Running the Football Worth a Damn
No one really got too excited about the Alexander Mattison experiment last summer. No one really got too excited about the Alexander Mattison experiment during the regular season. No one really got too mad when the Alexander Mattison experiment ended with his free-agent departure to Las Vegas.
Using money saved from Mattison’s release, the Vikings signed Aaron Jones and will pair him with last year’s RB2, Ty Chandler. The two have a tall task: fixing the ground game once and for all.
In 2022, Minnesota’s rushing attack ranked 27th per DVOA. After the 2022 season, the coaching staff recognized the sin and vowed improvement. Fast-forward to the end of 2023, and the Vikings ranked 27th per rushing DVOA — again.
O’Connell’s offense will never totally take off if the rushing attack stinks. Playoff-contending and Super Bowl teams don’t rank near the bottom of the NFL per rushing efficiency. They just don’t.
Minnesota must run the ball at an average or better pace to improve on the 2023 season. Should Minnesota screw around and rank 27th or so again per rushing efficiency, the team won’t do much of anything, and O’Connell may feel the hot seat.
The franchise doesn’t have to construct a “run-first” offense, but it must run the ball and close out games when needed. Recently, the Vikings haven’t done that.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
You must be logged in to post a comment.