Vikings’ 2024 Win Total Prediction Is Somewhat Unanimous
The Minnesota Vikings embark on a new era this September, the first season without Kirk Cousins at QB1 since 2018.
Vikings’ 2024 Win Total Prediction Is Somewhat Unanimous
With Cousins around for half the season last year (he fell victim to an Achilles tear), Minnesota won seven games and missed the postseason after remaining relevant all the way to halftime of a Week 18 game at the Detroit Lions.
Well, oddsmakers forecast a similar fate for Minnesota this season — a win total in the neighborhood of seven. For instance, Pro Football Focus recently published its annual win projections, and the Vikings were tucked near the middle bottom and assigned 7.6 wins.
Of course, PFF’s hypothesis isn’t standalone. FTN Fantasy’s Aaron Schatz, the godfather of DVOA, outfitted Minnesota with 7.9 wins in 2024, a would-be modest improvement. Schatz mentioned the ground game as a point of emphasis this season. “An improved run game should also help, in theory. The run game was supposed to be a point of emphasis for the 2023 Vikings when they moved on from Dalvin Cook, handed the starting role to Alexander Mattison, and signed Josh Oliver as a blocking tight end,” he explained. “But it never took off and Minnesota ranked 27th in rushing DVOA. Part of the problem was a lack of marriage between the run and the pass.”
Then, according to oddsmakers, Minnesota checks in around 6.5 or 7.5 wins, depending on the sportsbook. FanDuel assigns the Vikings a 7.5-win over-under, for example, with others, like BetMGM, at 6.5.
On the whole, various sources are saying the same thing — the Vikings will be a 7-10 or 8-9 team in 2024, mainly because of quarterback uncertainty. In May, Bleacher Report served as a slight outlier with an eight-win forecast. While that’s not cause for a parade, it’s higher than most folks’ expectations.
“If Darnold starts, Minnesota will probably have to accept the inconsistency in his game. In 66 NFL appearances (including 56 starts), he’s thrown for 63 touchdowns and 56 interceptions with a 59.7 percent completion rate. Darnold may not be much better than Nick Mullens, who turned the ball over at an alarming rate last season,” BR’s Maurice Moton explained about Darnold’s role in the offense.
Finally, per a hodgepodge of preseason power rankings, the masses believe Minnesota is around the 22nd-best team entering a new season. That translates to 12th-worst in the business.
So, it’ll be up to Kevin O’Connell and 53 players to prove everyone wrong. Otherwise, it’s seven wins per the court of public opinion.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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