One Viking Still on the Fringe of MVP Race
The momentum might’ve dipped over the last two games, but Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold remains a fringe candidate for the NFL’s MVP award.
One Viking Still on the Fringe of MVP Race
Darnold ranks fourth in touchdown passes and ninth per EPA+CPOE among all quarterbacks, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added.
And according to ESPN, Darnold is just outside of the MVP sprint, with six weeks of the regular season in the books. ESPN’s Stephen Holder sized up the race this week and placed Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens), Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs), Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders), C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans), and Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) in the top five. Darnold checked in right after Darnold in a “just missed” category.
“Darnold’s turnaround is one the NFL’s best stories of 2024, and he’s also powering one of the best teams,” Holder wrote this week. “The 5-0 Vikings have benefited from Darnold’s efficiency and ability to avoid huge mistakes. He’s currently top five in yards per attempt (8.1) and touchdown passes (11) and playing the best football of his career.”
These are the live odds for MVP:
- Patrick Mahomes (+325)
- Lamar Jackson (+550)
- C.J. Stroud (+650)
- Josh Allen (+650)
- Jayden Daniels (+1200)
- Sam Darnold (+1800)
Minnesota has won its last two games, surviving comeback attempts from the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets. In both contests, the Vikings jumped to a combined 45-0 lead, only to let Green Bay and New York back into the showdowns. Along the way, Darnold’s performance dipped, at least compared to his otherworldly production from Week 1 to 3.
Still, Darnold remains in the MVP picture, and one three-touchdown passing effort this Sunday, for instance, could propel his odds back up the ladder.
Here’s evidence of the recent drop-off:
Sam Darnold,
NFL QB Ranking,
per EPA+CPOE:
Week 1-3: 7th
Week 4-6: 19th
Thankfully for his sake, the decline isn’t too gruesome. But it is noticeable.
This weekend, Minnesota hosts the Detroit Lions, a matchup that will determine a clear frontrunner in the NFC to eventually reach the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers and pundits will stay in love with the San Francisco 49ers, almost no matter what, but the winner of Vikings-Lions will join the 49ers as a 1B to the 1A.
Darnold’s Vikings are favored to win by 2.5 points.
No Viking — or non-quarterback, for that matter — has won MVP since 2012, when Adrian Peterson took home the trophy.
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Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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