If the Playoffs Started Today, the Vikings Would Play You Know Who.
Through eight weeks, the Minnesota Vikings have a 5-2 record and a 78.0% chance of reaching the postseason, according to DVOA.
If the Playoffs Started Today, the Vikings Would Play You Know Who.
Most fans and pundits believed Minnesota’s record would be flipped at this juncture — 2-5 instead of 5-2. But Minnesota has overachieved out the gate, downing Super Bowl-contending teams like the Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, and Green Bay Packers.
Accordingly, because of the fancy 5-2 record, Minnesota would be in the playoffs if they began today — and the Vikings would face an old friend on the road in Kirk Cousins and his Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta is the current No. 3 seed, and Minnesota is sixth.
Entering Week 9, Atlanta showcases an NFC South-leading 5-3 record after Cousins and Co. chipped off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last Sunday. The Vikings, meanwhile, have lost two straight — dampening enthusiasm among the team’s fanbase — and live in third place behind the Detroit Lions and aforementioned Packers in the NFC North. So, although Minnesota owns a better win percentage than Atlanta, the NFL would have the Vikings jaunt south for a Wildcard playoff game in Georgia.
That would be rather poetic, wouldn’t it?
Cousins played terribly in his first game as a Falcon, visibly rusty and almost appearing “washed” as an NFL starter. But it was an outlier. He rebounded quickly and is back on pace for a Cousinsian season of 4,475 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and 15 picks. Classic Cousins.
His replacement in Minnesota, Sam Darnold, mirrors Cousins’ output if that can be believed. Darnold is on pace for 3,910 yards, 34 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. And he’s $35 million cheaper than Cousins. Vikings fans approve.
Furthermore, the “good” part of Minnesota’s schedule is … now. The first seven games for Minnesota were never interpreted as easy, instead considered a murderer’s row by most, featuring four to five “non-winnable” games for a Vikings team that was only supposed to win about six or seven games in 2024. The upcoming home games are winnable or quasi-winnable, and the road opponents — sans a Week 18 matchup in Detroit — are navigable.
This is the gauntlet by the numbers, past and upcoming:
Vikings Opponents,
per EPA/Play,
NFL Ranking,
thru Week 8:
Opponent: Offense | Defense
at NYG: 26th | 20th
vs. SF: 7th | 12th
vs. HOU: 20th | 8th
at GB: 11th | 9th
vs. NYJ: 18th | 14th
vs. DET: 4th | 5th
at LAR: 16th | 25th
— YOU ARE HERE —
vs. IND: 19th | 15th
at JAX: 15th | 32nd
at TEN: 30th | 11th
at CHI: 21st | 4th
vs. ARI: 12th | 29th
vs. ATL: 9th | 23rd
vs. CHI: 21st | 4th
at GB: 11th | 9th
at DET: 4th | 5th
Finally, to wet your whistle, the Vikings play those very Falcons in 39 days. Cousins and his pals visit U.S. Bank Stadium on December 8th.
By the current standings, that game could be a playoff preview. Cousins v. Darnold.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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