ESPN Names Vikings’ Likely QB1 in 2025
While most Minnesota Vikings are basking in the glory of an 11-2 record through 14 weeks of the regular season, ESPN has begun to peer at the NFL’s quarterback landscape in 2025.
ESPN Names Vikings’ Likely QB1 in 2025
Minnesota’s soon-to-be quarterback dilemma will take center stage when the season ends, and the club will have a binary choice — to pay Sam Darnold or let him walk to free agency.
According to ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, Minnesota will tab rookie passer J.J. McCarthy as the 2025 QB1, allowing Darnold to exit stage left. Darnold could, of course, complicate the decision with a deep playoff run or Super Bowl triumph, but for now, Barnwell claimed McCarthy would take the QB1 baton next season.
“Minnesota will have more than $79 million in cap space next year per Spotrac, but the Vikings are also one of the league’s oldest teams and have five starters hitting free agency this offseason, including their top three cornerbacks,” Barnwell wrote Monday.
“And while it is thriving with Darnold under center, the defense has been the driving force for its victories, as the Vikings rank second in EPA per play on defense. They’re 13th on offense. Would Adofo-Mensah prefer to stick with a low-cost solution at quarterback and invest to keep that defense playing at a high level. My guess is yes, but this puts the Vikings in an interesting position, one that could hurt Darnold in the long run.”
Darnold is on pace for 4,314 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, and 4 fumbles in 2024. He ranks seventh leaguewide per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added.
“If Darnold continues to play like this down the stretch and into the postseason, the Vikings would have to at least consider changing their plans. He ranks 16th in Total QBR, a reflection of both the highs and lows that have come with his first season. Getting trapped with a league-average starter on a market-value deal is a dangerous game for franchises, and we saw the Vikings grapple to build a Super Bowl contender around Cousins in a similar situation for six seasons in Minnesota,” Barnwell continued.
“In a league in which teams almost always prefer the player they know to the unknown, though, would Minnesota really be willing to let Darnold walk out the door if he takes it on a deep playoff run for the first time since 2017? Likely 2025 starter: McCarthy.”
On the whole, this is a good problem for Minnesota — too many good quarterbacks to keep on the budget. In fact, at the moment, Minnesota employs Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, Daniel Jones, and Nick Mullens. All could start in the NFL, at least in a pinch for the latter two.
The Vikings drafted McCarthy for a reason 8.5 months ago, and unless Darnold helps Minnesota win the Super Bowl, deviating from the McCarthy plan feels severely unlikely.
For context, if Minnesota re-upped with Darnold for $40+ million per year — that will be his asking price per his current production — it would be right back in the spot that some fans loathed for six years: paying a good-but-not-great quarterback big money while hoping to outfit the roster around a large quarterback contract.
McCarthy would enable the Vikings to team-build without the huge paycheck for four more years.
And that’s probably why ESPN believes he’ll be “the guy” in Minnesota in 2025 and beyond.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
You must be logged in to post a comment.