The Minnesota Vikings finished 7-10 in 2023, setting sights on improvement in 2024, even after parting ways with franchise staples Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter in March.
5 Keys to Vikings Success in 2024
As youthful contingencies, Minnesota selected quarterback J.J. McCarthy and outside linebacker Dallas Turner in the draft.
And if the Vikings want to avoid back-to-back losing seasons, these are the five keys to success, ranked in ascending order (No. 1 = most important).
5. Rushing Efficiency = Not Awful
The Vikings ranked 27th per rushing DVOA in 2022. Vowed was improvement heading into 2023. When 2023 ended — you guessed — Minnesota ranked 27th per DVOA in running the rock. The club also didn’t score its first rushing touchdown until Week 8 last year, a woeful statistic.
To complement the passing game, Kevin O’Connell’s ground attack must reach the middle of the NFL per efficiency. If not, the offense will essentially become a repeat of 2022 and 2023. And that means good, not great, and nowhere near sustainable for a playoff team.
Thankfully, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah put his foot down and signed Aaron Jones this offseason, which should fix the problem. Otherwise, Ty Chandler is hungry for more snaps.
4. Health
The 2023 season was undone by injuries to Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Marcus Davenport, and Jordan Hicks, among others. Of course, this is mostly a luck-related circumstance, and sometimes, the NFL feels like a five-month battle of attrition to determine Super Bowl combatants.
Still, the Vikings must duck injuries at quarterback and to the superstar players — which it did not do in 2023.
3. Defensive Progression
From Weeks 4-14 in 2023, Minnesota ranked No. 1 in the NFL per EPA/Play. Fans forget about that fancy stat because Brian Flores’ defense collapsed in December and January.
On the whole, the Vikings’ defense performed well in Flores’ first year, and now it’s time to build on the progress. The team has plenty of new players, including Jonathan Greenard, Dallas Turner, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, Shaquill Griffin, and Jerry Tillery. The Flores defense placed 11th in the league per DVOA last season. That could reasonably climb into the Top 10 this year.
2. A Normal Season per Turnovers
Minnesota ranked second-to-last in giveaways and turnover differential last year. Almost no team with such stats does much in a season. Turnovers are a death sentence.
Therefore, Kevin O’Connell’s team must clean up its act this year, reducing interceptions and fumbles to the utmost. The numbers show Minnesota is unbeatable under O’Connell when it plays clean football — and horrendous when turnovers flop all over the place.
1. Decent QB Play
A no-brainer.
This correlates directly to turnovers: Minnesota needs its QB1 to protect the football — and move the sticks while throwing some touchdown passes along the way. It’s that simple. He doesn’t have to post Kirk Cousins-like stats, with 4,000+ passing yards and 30+ touchdowns, but he must play smart.
This can even be performed as a duo, for example, if Darnold starts the season and McCarthy takes over in November. Because Brian Flores’ defense should improve, the quarterback must play decently. It’s not a terribly high bar to clear.
Vikings Face Triple Whammy of Bad News
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.