4 Things We Know for Sure about the 2024 Vikings
In a few hours, eight months of offseason mystery concludes, and Minnesota Vikings fans begin to find out if the 2024 squad is any better than last year’s edition.
The Vikings are expected to win 6.5 games this season, per sportsbooks, as the powers that be don’t trust the new quarterback under center.
4 Things We Know for Sure about the 2024 Vikings
And while the offseason had twists and turns, these are four things we know for sure about the 2024 team ranked in ascending order of importance (No. 1 = most important).
4. A Brutal Schedule
Sharp Football Analysis is an effective tool to adjudicate strength of schedule, using oddsmakers’ win-total projections for each team instead of 2023 wins and losses. Per Sharp, the Vikings have the league’s third-toughest schedule, ranked 28th on the list of difficulty. Kirk Cousins’ new team, the Atlanta Falcons, has the easiest lay of the land, according to Sharp.
The road is rocky for Minnesota, especially in the beginning — the first seven games — unless opponents encounter unforeseen injuries.
Week 1 — at New York Giants
Week 2 — vs. San Francisco 49ers
Week 3 — vs. Houston Texans
Week 4 — at Green Bay Packers
Week 5 — vs. New York Jets (London)
Week 6 — Bye
Week 7 — vs. Detroit Lions
Week 8 — at Los Angeles Rams (TNF)
Week 9 — vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 10 — at Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 11 — at Tennessee Titans
Week 12 — at Chicago Bears
Week 13 — vs. Arizona Cardinals
Week 14 — vs. Atlanta Falcons
Week 15 — vs. Chicago Bears (MNF)
Week 16 — at Seattle Seahawks
Week 17 — vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 18 — at Detroit Lions
3. The Defense … Will Be Good
In one offseason, Brian Flores transformed the NFL’s 24th-ranked defense in 2022 per DVOA to 11th-best via the same metric in 2023. And then general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah added Jonathan Greenard (OLB), Andrew Van Ginkel (OLB), Blake Cashman (ILB), Jerry Tillery (DT), Stephon Gilmore (CB), Shaquill Griffin CB), and 1st-Round rookie Dallas Turner (OLB). New undrafted free agents like Dwight McGlothern (CB) and Levi Drake Rodriguez (DT) are in the house, too.
The personnel improved, and Flores is still employed. This Vikings defense will be quite productive. Eventually feared, even.
2. Turnovers Are Everything
The Vikings haven’t lost a game in the Kevin O’Connell era when winning the turnover battle or breaking even. They’re 17-0. Undefeated.
On the flip side, O’Connell’s Vikings are 3-14 when they lose the turnover battle since 2022. No other NFL team has a variance that wide. Since 2022, Vikings football is just a turnover referendum.
1. Change, Change, Change
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s “competitive rebuild” is done. It ended this offseason when Kirk Cousins left, and J.J. McCarthy walked through the door. Cousins is gone, Danielle Hunter is gone, Dalvin Cook left, Adam Thielen left, Eric Kendricks left, and Adam Thielen left. Most of Minnesota’s red meat from 2015 to 2021 has left the organization.
Adofo-Mensah rebuilt the team over three offseasons, with change aplenty.
Vikings Free Up Some Cap Space
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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