Week 6 NFL Picks: Can the Vikings Bounce Back in Chicago?
Week 5 was the best one yet in terms of picks. I said going in that it needed to be a big one in order to get us back on track, and it was exactly that with a 9-5-1 record.
Now, we’re sitting one or two big weeks away from getting all the way back to an even record on the season, and we can forget about the dreadful start to the season. Before we get into those Week 6 NFL picks, here is a look back at how we fared in Week 5:
- Bears +6 (W)
- Jaguars +5.5 (W)
- Texans +2 (T)
- Lions -10 (W)
- Colts +2 (W)
- Dolphins -11 (W)
- Dolphins/Giants O48.5 points (L)
- Saints +1 (W)
- Ravens -4 (L)
- Rams +4.5 (L)
- Bengals -3 (W)
- Jets +1.5 (W)
- Vikings +4 (L)
- 49ers -4 (W)
- Packers -1 (L)
Season Record: 35-44-3
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -10.5
- O/U: 47 points
Frey’s Pick: Chiefs -10.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-2 on Thursday nights since Patrick Mahomes took over at QB, and of course, one of those losses came in Week 1 when they fell to the Detroit Lions. However, that game was played without Chris Jones or Travis Kelce.
This week, both players will be on the field, and Mahomes has gotten a chance to get a bit more familiar with his other receivers. Against this Broncos defense, I expect Kansas City to roll here.
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
- Spread: Ravens -4
- O/U: 41 points
Frey’s Pick: Titans +4
Sunday football kicks off with another game in London with two teams coming off bad losses in Week 5. Baltimore completely threw away their game against the Steelers while Tennessee has looked like completely different teams at times this season.
If the trend of bad Titans being followed up by really good Titans continues, we’re due for a good showing from Tennessee this weekend. Mike Vrabel will have this team prepared, and it will be a close matchup.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
- Spread: Vikings -2.5
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Bears +2.5
Obviously, the Vikings will be without star wide receiver Justin Jefferson in this game. While they have other talented players on offense, it will inevitably be a massive blow to their production. On top of that, their inability to take care of the football will probably result in some extra points for the Bears.
Chicago has also played some of their best football of the season over the past two weeks. Justin Fields is finally throwing the ball with some confidence, and I have a feeling the Bears pull off a win at home.
Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons
- Spread: Falcons -2.5
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Falcons -2.5
Desmond Ridder played one of the best games of his young career last weekend, and he is now 5-0 at home during his NFL career. Washington’s defense has been horrendous over the past few weeks, allowing 33+ points in each of the last four games.
The Commanders have now lost three games in a row after their 2-0 start to the year, and the cracks in their armor are showing. Atlanta will snatch another home victory.
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Bengals -2.5
- O/U: 45 points
Frey’s Picks: Bengals -2.5, O45 points
The Cincinnati Bengals finally put together a strong showing on offense this past weekend. Joe Burrow looked much closer to his normal self, and he hit Ja’Marr Chase for 3 TDs against the Arizona Cardinals. Now that they’ve got a little bit of momentum going, it feels like they can put up a similar performance against Seattle. This should be a high-scoring affair too, so I’ll take the over on the points.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
- Spread: 49ers -6.5
- O/U: 37 points
Frey’s Pick: 49ers -6.5
Deshaun Watson could make his return this weekend for Cleveland, but he still has not been practicing to begin this week. During Week 4, Dorian Thompson-Robinson got the start in his place, and Cleveland’s offense was unable to put up much production.
P.J. Walker would get the start this weekend if Watson is unable to go, but that doesn’t feel all that much different from Thompson-Robinson. If Watson is unable to go, the 49ers defense will shine. Regardless, it feels like San Francisco gets a win here.
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -13.5
- O/U: 48.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Dolphins -13.5
The Carolina Panthers cannot move the ball on offense. Some of the problems involve growing pains from rookie QB Bryce Young, but the offensive line hasn’t given him much help, either, nor has their running game been all that productive.
The Dolphins will be missing De’Von Achane, who went to IR, but this offense still has plenty of playmakers. Miami wins big as they bounce back from a sloppy Week 5 game against the Giants.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: Jaguars -4
- O/U: 45.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Colts +4
We have a rematch from Week 1 in the AFC South. This is a battle for first-place in the division, and while Jacksonville won the first game by double-digits, this one will be very competitive. Anthony Richardson won’t be able to play this game for Indy, but Gardner Minshew has proven to be a very capable backup and will keep this matchup close.
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans
- Spread: Saints -1.5
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Saints -1.5
C.J. Stroud has been incredible to start the year and is yet to throw an interception through five weeks. However, this weekend, he runs into a Saints defense that has been amongst the league leaders in takeaways, including 7 interceptions through five weeks.
The offense finally started getting back on track for New Orleans in Week 5 as well. I’ll take the Saints to pick up a second consecutive road win.
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Raiders -3
- O/U: 41.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Raiders -3
The Patriots have been a mess over the past two weeks, being outscored 72-3 in their past two games. Rhamondre Stevenson has not been anything close to the running back that he was last season, and the defense will have to navigate the losses of both Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon.
The Raiders offense hasn’t done much this year, either, but their defense was ferocious against Green Bay on Monday night. They get another win this weekend.
Arizona Cardinals at Las Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -7
- O/U: 48.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Rams -7
Los Angeles had Cooper Kupp return to the field last weekend against the Eagles, and while the Rams were unable to capture a win, their star receiver looked fantastic. The Rams now have a very solid trio in Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell. With James Conner heading to IR for the Cardinals, thus taking away a key contributor to their offense, it’s tough to believe that Arizona will be able to keep up in this game.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
- Spread: Eagles -7
- O/U: 41 points
Frey’s Pick: Eagles -7
We are yet to see the Eagles really dominate a game this season. This feels like the week for it to happen, though. New York’s offensive line has been a weakness all season, and Philadelphia’s defensive front should dominate that matchup.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Lions -3
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Lions -3
Tampa Bay got a chance to rest up and prepare on their bye week, but Detroit feels like they’re quickly becoming a juggernaut in the NFC. They had another huge win over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, and I think this is another chance for Detroit to show the league what they are capable of.
Tampa Bay’s defense is a solid group, but the Lions have scored 30+ points in three of their first five games while the Buccaneers offense has not been nearly as inspriring. Detroit gets their fifth win.
New York Giants at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -14
- O/U: 45 points
Frey’s Pick: Bills -14
Oddsmakers are begging people to take the Giants with this line, but I’m not going to do it. New York has been a mess on offense all year, and I don’t see that changing against one of the top defenses in the league. Of course, Buffalo will miss Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones on that side of the ball, but I still see the Bills coming away with a big win here.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Cowboys -2.5
- O/U: 51 points
Frey’s Pick: Chargers +2.5
Teams are 1-3 this season in the immediate weeks after playing the 49ers. That physical group takes a toll on opponents, and I expect the same from the Cowboys on Monday night. They struggled to match San Francisco’s intensity throughout the game, and this is the week where folks begin seeing the cracks in Dallas’ armor.
Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho and managing editor of PurplePTSD.com. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.