The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 2

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 2

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

Week 2
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

This is the Vikings probability meter after the Week 1 loss against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

DVOA = 10.3%

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports.

The most unkind of them all, FTNFantasy.com actually predicts Detroit to run away with the NFC North, which would be a first-of-its-kind feat in 30 years. As of late, DVOA stats (now housed at FTN Fantasy) have loathed the Vikings, and 2023 is just a continuation of 2022. The Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay did not help.

Last year, Minnesota had a 13-4 record but ranked 27th leaguewide per DVOA.

Image Courtesy of Fantasy FTN

The Lions are apparently in the driver’s seat to reach the postseason, along with the Packers.

Sportsbooks = 32.8%

Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports.

Most credible sportsbooks settled around a +115 moneyline for Minnesota to visit the postseason one week ago, which translated to 46.5%. That percentage and moneyline stayed stagnant for most of the offseason, as oddsmakers decided Minnesota was an 8.5-win team after it lost Eric Kendricks, Adam Thielen, Za’Darius Smith, Dalvin Cook, Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, and others — and that was that.

But after the Week 1 loss, the moneyline changed to +205 or 32.8%. That’s what happens when a team loses to Baker Mayfield, evidently. The win-total over-under also fell to 7.5 wins.

The Vikings can right the ship against the Eagles, and a win would whisk the playoff odds back to respectability. But oddsmakers believe Minnesota will lose at Philadelphia on Thursday night, as the Eagles are favored by a touchdown.

PlayoffStatus.com = 24%

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. | Jan 15, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) looks on during warmups before a wild card game against the New York Giants at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports.

This site takes a more rudimentary approach to the calculation, not necessarily factoring in predictive performance. But in the interest of fairness and sheer math, PlayoffStatus.com was included for a broader view.


The Vikings play the Eagles on Thursday night at Lincoln Financial Field. Minnesota has split the last four matchups with Philadelphia, including the heartbreaking loss in the 2017 NFC Championship.

Note: FiveThirtyEight.com typically reveals playoff odds and other NFL metrics by now, but nothing is available as of September 12th. Perhaps it will publish something after Week 2.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.

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