Week 13 NFL Picks: Cowboys Roll, Lions Get Back on Track
Well folks, Thanksgiving proved to be just the weekend we needed to get back on track.
From Thursday-Monday, we had a total record 12-3-1 in Week 12, thus boosting us over .500 for the first time this season. Now, it’s time to build off that huge weekend and make some more strong picks with the Vikings on bye. Before we get into the Week 13 NFL picks, here is a look back at how we did in Week 12:
- Packers +7.5 (W)
- Cowboys -11 (W)
- 49ers -7 (W)
- Jets +10 (L)
- Falcons +1.5 (W)
- Steelers -2.5 (W)
- Titans -3.5 (W)
- Colts -2.5 (W)
- Giants +3.5 (W)
- Jaguars -2 (W)
- Broncos -1.5 (W)
- Rams -2.5 (W)
- Raiders +10 (L)
- Bills +3 (T)
- Ravens -3.5 (W)
- Vikings -3 (L)
Season Record: 91-90-7
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys
- Spread: Cowboys -9
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Cowboys -9
It is worth noting that both teams are coming off Thanksgiving Day games, so rest won’t be a factor for either Dallas or Seattle. This game could be a test to my Dallas Cowboys theory as well. I typically always take Dallas against bad teams while going against them when they play good teams. Right now, I’m not quite sure which side to categorize Seattle as, but they’ve had back-to-back ugly games. I’ll ride with the Cowboys at home.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
- Spread: Colts -1
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Titans +1
The Colts have gone on a bit of a roll lately, winning three straight games and getting into the playoff hunt. However, they currently have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, giving up 129.3 rushing yards per game. Tennessee will be at home for this game, and they battled with this Colts team in their first matchup. I’ll take the Titans to win in an upset.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
- Spread: Chargers -6
- O/U: 40.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Chargers -6
The Patriots defense scares me a bit going into this game. Perhaps they can keep this close, but at the end of the day, New England seems very close to benching Mac Jones in favor of either Bailey Zappe or Malik Cunningham. WR Demario Douglas is also in concussion protocol, so the offense could be further limited on Sunday.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
- Spread: Lions -4
- O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Lions -4
The Lions have played some bad football for a few weeks now, and it’s time to get back on track to ensure that they hold their spot near the top of the NFC. A great opportunity to do so comes this weekend against a Saints team that has been horrific on offense for most of the season.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets
- Spread: Falcons -3
- O/U: 33.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Falcons -3
Arthur Smith is finally beginning to let Bijan Robinson lead the Falcons offense. The rookie running back has over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the past two games, and he scored multiple TDs for the first time in his career last week against the Saints. On top of that, this Atlanta defense is filled with playmakers who should make life brutal for whoever is starting at QB for the Jets.
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Spread: Steelers -5.5
- O/U: 41.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Steelers -5.5
The Steelers offense finally got things going a bit after their coordinator change last week. Pat Freiermuth was a huge part of their success in the passing game, and that should continue moving forward. The Cardinals are a better team now that they have their quarterback, but Kyler Murray doesn’t fix all the glaring holes on this roster. Steelers get a win at home.
Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders
- Spread: Dolphins -9.5
- O/U: 49.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Commanders +9.5
Picking a big underdog against the Dolphins was the wrong choice last week, but I still think there is something to this Commanders squad. Sam Howell can make plays at quarterback, and Washington is making changes to their coaching staff on the defensive side. Miami should still win, but the Commanders can still keep this close.
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
- Spread: Texans -3.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Broncos +3.5
The Broncos are red-hot right now coming off their fifth win in a row. They absolutely obliterated the Cleveland Browns last weekend, but now they have a very tough game in front of them against a rising Texans squad. At the end of the day, Houston may win this one, but it feels like it could be a field goal game.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Buccaneers -5
- O/U: 36.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Buccaneers -5
It’s tough to see the Panthers rallying after they fired Frank Reich. There are simply too many issues with this roster between the defense and offensive line, which are only compounded by Bryce Young not playing great football. Tampa Bay has gone through some defensive struggles, but they can still get back on track this weekend.
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -3.5
- O/U: 39.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Browns +3.5
The Browns could be back on the P.J. Walker train this weekend, but he has been a quarterback that they’ve won with in the past this season. Cleveland’s defense will be looking to get back on track after a tough game last Sunday in Denver, so I’ll take them to cover the points here.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: 49ers -3
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: 49ers -3
The 49ers have a chance at revenge after what happened in last year’s NFC Championship Game. The Eagles have snuck by multiple opponents over the past few weeks, but now that the 49ers are fully healthy on offense, Philly’s luck may run out on Sunday.
Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -6
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Packers +6
The Packers are beginning to get back on track, and a lot of that has to do with the play of their young QB Jordan Love. He has cut down on the turnovers, and Green Bay’s wide receivers are beginning to figure out their roles in the offense. Kansas City has had the opposite problem with their wide receivers. If we are banking on a couple drops from the Chiefs’ side, Green Bay can certainly make this a one-score game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: Jaguars -8
- O/U: 37.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Jaguars -8
This game would have been much more intriguing if Joe Burrow was on the field, but alas, Cincinnati is riding into this game with Jake Browning at QB. Jacksonville earned a huge road win last week to stay atop the AFC South, and they will ride that momentum into Sunday night.
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Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho and managing editor of PurplePTSD.com. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.
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