These Are the Vikings Chances of Making Playoffs
VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.
These Are the Vikings Chances of Making Playoffs
Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.
This is the Vikings probability meter after the Week 6 win at the Chicago Bears.
DVOA = 14.5%
The most unkind of them all to the Vikings, FTNFantasy.com believes Detroit has the NFC North all wrapped up, which would grant the Lions their first division crown in three decades.
The Vikings and Packers meet in Wisconsin on October 29th, and the team that loses will hit the cellar for DVOA’s playoff forecast.
The Bears are nearing practical elimination, per DVOA, an early indictment after a summer stuffed to the gills with momentum for Chicago fans.
Sportsbooks = 28.5%
Most credible sportsbooks settled around a +115 moneyline for Minnesota to visit the postseason when the regular season kicked off, which translated to 46.5%. That percentage and moneyline stayed stagnant for most of the offseason, as oddsmakers decided Minnesota was an 8.5-win team after it lost Eric Kendricks, Adam Thielen, Za’Darius Smith, Dalvin Cook, Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, and others — and that was that.
But after the Vikings 2-4 start, the moneyline changed to +250 or 27.8%. That’s what happens when the losses pile up.
Minnesota can change the playoff forecast in a big way with a win over the San Francisco 49ers. Although, the team may have to play close to perfect to topple the NFL’s best team.
PlayoffStatus.com = 20%
This site takes a more rudimentary approach to the calculation, not necessarily factoring in predictive performance. But in the interest of fairness and sheer math, PlayoffStatus.com was included for a broader view.
New York Times = 29%
The New York Times playoff predictor is live, and interestingly, if the Vikings down the 49ers, the probability will climb to 45%.
You can play with the NYT machine here.
The Vikings play the 49ers on Monday Night Football and are seven-point underdogs as of October 17th. The 49ers could, though, be without the lineup’s red meat as injuries to offensive players Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams arose last weekend.
Note: FiveThirtyEight.com typically reveals playoff odds and other NFL metrics by now, but nothing is available as of October 17th. Perhaps it will publish something closer to the middle of the season.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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