Jun 8, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell talks to wide receivers Adam Thielen (left) and Justin Jefferson (right) during mandatory mini camp at TCO Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports.
The Minnesota Vikings need an offensive insurance policy — plain and simple.
During the 2022 season, a campaign that ended with a nifty 13-4 record and NFC North title, defensive coordinators on the other side of the field increasingly realized they could afford more attention to Justin Jefferson and dampen the man’s Sunday.
That will not stop.
Accordingly, because double-covering Jefferson is just approaching the tip of the iceberg for frequency, Minnesota needs a dynamic WR2 who can relieve the pressure when Jefferson is bottled up. And regrettably for Vikings fans, that player may no longer be longtime wideout Adam Thielen.
Listen, Thielen could return to the Vikings in 2023 — or join a franchise like the Cleveland Browns or Denver Broncos — and totally rejuvenate. This is possible and shouldn’t be wholly ruled out. Yet, there’s also an inconvenient truth that Thielen will be 33 this summer, an age range when countless receivers of yesterday have slowed down. It’s just how it works.
Thielen personally wants to return with the 2023 Vikings — why wouldn’t he? He’s Mr. Minnesota, and his storybook career should end in the Twin Cities. Right before the Super Bowl, Thielen said on ESPN’s First Take, “I want to retire a Viking. Will that happen? I don’t know. This is also a business. And I also want my opportunity to show that I can play at a high level. So, we’ll see what happens.”
He also said on the Pat McAfee Show the same day, “We’re working through some stuff because I have a big cap hit. They’re gonna try to do something, but we’ll see.”
But whether Thielen returns for Year 11 in Minnesota or leaves, the Vikings should have a prolific WR2 contingency plan. T.J. Hockenson filled the role by default as a prestigious TE1 after he joined the club in November. That was wonderful. Even with Hockenson’s heroics, though, the Vikings offense lacked a wide receiver, at times, who could break big plays during Jefferson’s quiet games. Hockenson merely caught balls underneath — like a good tight end should — when defenses temporarily solved Jefferson. The Vikings need to think bigger.
Ergo, rookie wide receivers have sprung into Vikings mock drafts. Ten days ago, ESPN’s Todd McShay mock drafted USC’s Jordan Addison to Minnesota. McShay gets it. Vikings fans, too, believe the next WR should be a rookie:
By the numbers, here’s the deal. Minnesota drafted Jefferson in 2020, and the phenom playmaker is already one of the best draft picks in franchise history. Bar none. To date, as he goes — so goes the Vikings wins and losses. For those that watch Vikings intently, the following statistic will cause no surprise.
The Vikings are a fabulous football team when Jefferson is doing damage. But when defenses toss on the clamps, it’s tearfully a different story:
Vikings Win-Loss Record,
According to Justin Jefferson’s Rec Yds:
50+ Rec Yds = 23-14 (.621)
Less than 50 Rec Yds = 5-8 (.384)
That’s right — scaled to a 17-game season, the Vikings are an 11-6 team when Jefferson tops 560 receiving yards. When he does not, they tumble to a 6-11 squad when scaled to 17 games.
Thankfully, Jefferson isn’t neutralized too often. However, the other team has an emphatic blueprint for beating Minnesota — sell out to stop Jefferson.
And that’s why the franchise must invest assets in a Jefferson-lite personality at WR2.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.