Vikings 2023 Playoff Odds Are Wimpy
Dustin Baker
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The 2022 Minnesota Vikings won the NFC North on the back of a 13-4 record, but that was considered eons ago by sportsbooks.
Sportsnaut’s Matt Johnson shed light on the Vikings upcoming and theorized regression last week, “There is ample evidence of NFL teams experiencing regression from one year to the next in one-score games. The Minnesota Vikings set an NFL record with 11 wins in one-score games in 2022. Regression is coming for a team that caught a lot of breaks, even if the defense is completely revamped this spring.”
Vikings 2023 Playoff Odds Are Wimpy
And oddsmakers agree with Johnson — to the tune of unusually wimpy playoff odds. The NFC North is scheduled to experience existence without Aaron Rodgers for the first time since 2004, and the Vikings are somehow forecasted to take a step back. Whoodathunkit?
The Draft Network’s Jaime Eisner posted 2023 playoff odds on Monday, with the NFL draft three weeks away. Minnesota lives in an awkward spot for a team that just won 13 games:
- 49ers: 83.3%
- Chiefs: 77.8%
- Eagles: 77.8%
- Bengals: 77.8%
- Bills: 71.4%
- Saints: 66.7%
- Cowboys: 65.5%
- Jaguars: 65.5%
- Ravens: 63.6%
- Lions: 63.0%
- Jets: 57.5%
- Dolphins: 56.5%
- Chargers: 50.0%
- Seahawks 50.0%
- Browns: 43.5%
- Vikings: 43.5%
- Steelers: 37.7%
- Giants: 36.4%
- Bears: 33.3%
- Panthers: 32.8%
- Falcons: 32.8%
- Broncos: 31.7%
- Packers: 31.2%
- Rams: 26.0%
- Titans: 25%
- Patriots: 23.5%
- Commanders: 22.2%
- Buccaneers: 20.0%
- Colts: 18.2%
- Raiders: 16.7%
- Texans: 9.1%
- Cardinals: 4.3%
Indeed, the Vikings are playoff bedfellows with the Cleveland Browns, the 15th-likeliest teams to play postseason football next January. After finishing 13-4 in Kevin O’Connell’s maiden voyage, Minnesota should be at least in the Top 12 — but no cigar.
If it’s any consolation, this is exactly where the Vikings were last April, on deck for 8.5 wins and playing second fiddle to the Green Bay Packers. The difference this time is the alleged NFC North frontrunner — the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell’s team has surpassed the Packers — and Vikings — for hypothetical NFC North dominance, and now the big felines are the team to beat in the division, according to oddsmakers.
Minnesota has essentially committed to a slogan this offseason: make the roster younger, leaner, faster, and more affordable. Thirty-five Vikings players, including quarterback Kirk Cousins, are scheduled for free agency in 2024, so 2023 has the feel of one last hurrah with the roster as currently constructed.
The Vikings accomplished the fancy 2022 feats with the NFL’s sixth-worst defense per DVOA, the 30th-ranked defense via points allowed, and 31st-ranked group per yards allowed. Minnesota was thoroughly exposed by the New York Giants mediocre offense in the Wildcard Round of the 2022 playoffs and fired defensive bossman Ed Donatell four days later. Brian Flores was hired about a month after Donatell’s dismissal to lead the charge in 2023 on defense, so fans will learn in five months if Donatell was “the problem.”
But per sportsbooks, it was more than just a Donatell thing. And that’s why Minnesota is projected to miss the 2023 postseason.
The club will have to defy the odds. Again.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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