The Vikings Decision on Kirk Cousins — a Prediction
Kirk Cousins joined the Minnesota Vikings in 2018 as a free agent and has thrown the fourth-most touchdown passes in the NFL since. On his watch, Minnesota has a 46-35-1 (.567) record, the 12th-best in the business in the last five years.
Now, Cousins’ contract is tentatively scheduled to expire at the end of next season, and the team’s front office must decide in the next three weeks to extend him, do nothing and let the contract play out, or trade the 34-year-old.
The Vikings Decision on Kirk Cousins — a Prediction
While a trade is severely unlikely because Cousins has a no-trade clause from his previous extension, the other two options are on the table. And here’s why the Vikings will likely extend Cousins for an extra year or two in the coming days.
Cap Savings
Full disclosure — this is the one that drives Cousins’ naysayers bonkers.
It’s the method where the team’s front office signs on with Cousins for an extra year and adds void years onto the end of the deal as the salary cap is nearly guaranteed to inflate annually — when there is no global pandemic.
The Vikings are cash-strapped with less than three weeks to go before free agency. They’re underwater between $21 and $24 million, depending on your cap website of choice. Extending Cousins while getting creative with his dead cap hit in future years can free up around $15 million on this year’s cap, meaning Kwesi Adofo-Mensah can add a player or three on defense. Regardless of your Cousins opinion, this should be intriguing.
Why? Minnesota ranked 27th in the league via defensive DVOA in 2022, so that side of the ball needs support. Recommitting to Cousins is an avenue to free up 2023 funds.
Time to Groom the ‘Next Guy’
Most NFL teams don’t have this pseudo luxury.
The Vikings employ one of the NFL’s most consistently productive and bulletproof quarterbacks. Cousins delivers 4,000+ passing yards and 30+ touchdowns with his eyes closed each season, and the man somehow never misses games due to injury. He’s an iron man, and frankly, no one seems to care.
However, his team can’t get past the NFC’s Divisional Round. Something is wrong. Because Adofo-Mensah didn’t personally glue Cousins to the roster in 2018, he doesn’t have Spielmanish loyalty to No. 8.
If the Vikings are in the mood, they can do the “Chiefs thing from 2017” or “Packers thing from 2005” and draft Cousins’ replacement this April or in 2024. The club can have the best of both worlds. Then, however long it takes Anonymous Next Quarterback A to develop, Cousins can provide the Vikings a puncher’s chance at the Super Bowl — like Alex Smith in 2017.
In the event Adofo-Mensah says “no thanks” to a Cousins extension, the successor quarterback must be drafted now — the No. 23 draft spot is not ideal for a franchise quarterback in 2023 — or next year with a plan to start that guy out of the gate.
Best Chance to Win in 2023
From Adofo-Mensah, and Kevin O’Connell, to Brian Flores, every meaningful Vikings leader has already said this offseason that 2023 has a “championship standard.”
If you haven’t figured it out yet, the Vikings are not rebuilding in 2023. In fact, the Vikings never rebuild.
So, how do the Vikings win now — to align actions with their words? Extend Cousins or pull off a trade for Top-5-QB in the NFL. And no team is trading a Top 5 quarterback. Therefore, in 2023, Cousins offers the best chance to compete for a championship. Minnesota will hope to replicate the 2021 Los Angeles Rams model — O’Connell was a coach for that team — via employing a decent passer in Cousins, akin to Matt Stafford, and surrounding a roster around the QB1 worthy of February football.
Let’s Face It — He’s Good
You and your pals might debate this topic every day this offseason. But when the dust settles, Cousins is a mighty fine quarterback. His “problem” is that he isn’t elite. Folks want their $35 million quarterback to play like a $50 million quarterback, and Cousins simply isn’t in that tier.
“Drafting our Mahomes” is a wonderful slogan, but it’s like saying the best way to fix the NBA’s Detroit Pistons last summer was to draft a “LeBron James type.” There was no LeBron James type available. It doesn’t work that way. Mahomes and James are legendary. The term used in contemporary society is generational.
Cousins usually grades out around the league’s 10th-to-14th-best quarterback when a season concludes. Is that really that maddening? Per average annual salary, Cousins is the ninth highest-paid passer in the league. The production [nearly] matches the pricetag. Folks like to assume $35 million per season is a Top 5 salary, but it is not.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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