The Odd Little Fact about Za’Darius Smith in 2023
Dustin Baker
|
Minnesota Vikings outside linebacker Za’Darius Smith was revered for his performance for about the first two months of the 2022 season.
Smith stockpiled 9.5 sacks in 10 weeks and seemed like a marvelous free-agent addition, even garnering fringe Defensive Player of the Year attention. But after the Vikings wild win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, Smith’s sack total simply ceased, tallying just 0.5 from Week 11 to Week 18. Smith was still a QB-pressure machine, but folks evidently don’t care about those if sacks aren’t flying onto the statsheet.
The Odd Little Fact about Za’Darius Smith in 2023
So, the sizzle over the former Green Bay Packer faded, and Smith somehow wound up in the 2023 offseason “cap casualty” conversations among fans. If Minnesota releases the 30-year-old in the coming weeks, it will save $12.1 million in cap space while incurring a $3.3 million dead cap hit in 2023.
Then, last week, the “house for sale” talker flooded Vikings social media. Star Tribune’s Ben Goessling tweeted Friday, “Vikings edge rusher Za’Darius Smith appears to be preparing to sell his house in Eagan; the property is listed as ‘coming soon’ on the real estate market.”
Smith’s house actually went on the market about a month ago, but the pseudo-news became a big deal late last week. If his home is for sale, he must be leaving, right? That’s the working theory by some.
It is true that with a new defensive coordinator, Smith could be jettisoned. The Vikings hired Brian Flores two weeks ago, and he could have a pass-rushing vision for 2023 that excludes Smith. That is a “to be determined” item through mid-February.
However, there’s an odd little fact about Smith that folks tend to ignore — he’s affordable for a Pro Bowl EDGE rusher.
Smith reached the Pro Bowl in 2022, and some Vikings enthusiasts merely swept that under the rug because the second half of his season didn’t mimic the first half. And next year, his cap hit is scheduled at $16.9 million. Five years ago, that was a gaudy number. But this isn’t five years ago.
As of February 19th, Smith’s 2023 cap hit ranks 23rd in the NFL among EDGE rushers. In 2022, Smith’s 83.3 Pro Football Focus grade ranked 13th against the rest of the league’s EDGE defenders. It’s a situation where the guy owning the 23rd-largest cap hit was the 13th-most efficient pass rusher.
In that vein, Smith’s 2023 cap status is a good deal for the Vikings — not one that should be immediately targeted for scrutiny. Still, age is a factor, as Smith turns 31 on September 8th. If one believes he’s absolutely destined to regress, then the $16.9 million is a bit spooky. But EDGE rushers aren’t quiet like running backs whose over-age-29 resumes spell doom. NFL EDGEs tend to thrive into their 30s.
Smith could end up a cap casualty — make no mistake. It boils down to general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s interpretation of his current value, plus Brian Flores’ estimation of Smith’s fit in his system.
But the $16.9 million really isn’t too much for a Pro Bowl outside linebacker. In fact, it’s affordable in NFL-speak.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
You must be logged in to post a comment.