4 of the Best Vegas Bets on Vikings in 2023
Dustin Baker
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The Minnesota Vikings regular season begins in five weeks when the franchise hosts the Tom Brady-less Tampa Bay Buccaneers at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Minnesota has +4,000 odds to win the Super Bowl next February, similar odds afforded to the teams like the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints.
4 of the Best Vegas Bets on Vikings in 2023
And while those Super Bowl odds may not be a smart or foolproof bet, various prop bets are enticing. Here are four wagers to ponder about the Vikings ranked in ascending order (No. 1 = best bet).
4. Kirk Cousins Under 4,324.5 Passing Yards
Choosing ‘the under’ for Cousins via this bet might surprise some, but here’s the deal: Kevin O’Connell and Alexander Mattison have explicitly stated this offseason the team’s plan to run the ball more in 2023.
The Vikings ranked 30th in the NFL last season per rushing playcall percentage.
Cousins can still deliver a productive 2023 season, but if the head coach is telling the truth, the running game will be showcased more frequently. The Vikings QB1 threw for 4,547 yards in 2022, and we expect that to dial back toward 4,100-4,200 yards in 2023.
3. Vikings Over 8.5 Wins
This was the same forecast predicted for the Vikings by sportsbooks last summer — 8.5 wins.
Then, the Vikings came along and shattered the bet by Thanksgiving night. And they did so — with ease — while employing the league’s third-worst defense per points allowed in 2022.
Minnesota hired Brian Flores this offseason and made defense a keynote point of emphasis for Kevin O’Connell’s second season. It was a miracle to finish 2022 with a 13-4 record and also showcase a lousy defense. We expect the defense to improve moderately and Minnesota to finish with an 11-6 or 10-7 record.
The 2023 schedule is, of course, brutal, but take the Vikings to finish 9-8 or better.
2. T.J. Hockenson Over 750.5 Receiving Yards
Between two teams in 2022, Hockenson tabulated 914 receiving yards. In 2023, the sportsbooks’ prop suggests his production will slow down.
So, like — what?
Hockenson should be showcased even more in the Vikings offense after a full offseason of preparation, and instead, oddsmakers foresee a regression for the 26-year-old.
It doesn’t really make sense.
1. Alexander Mattison Over 6.5 Rushing TDs
Dalvin Cook left the Vikings on June 9th and remains a free agent. He’ll likely sign with the New York Jets, New England Patriots, or Miami Dolphins, for example, before too long.
Taking over for Cook is Mattison, the RB2 from the last four years. He scored 6 touchdowns as the backup last year, and for some reason, kind of like the Hockenson bet, sportsbooks formulated a ho-hum 2023 prognosis.
Mattison won’t play as well as prime Cook — few do — but the new RB1 found ways to score in a backup role. He should exceed 6.5 touchdowns with ease, barring injury.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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