Vikings 2023 Super Bowl Odds Raise Some Eyebrows
Dustin Baker
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If you’re a Minnesota Vikings fan expecting a successful 2023 follow-up campaign to 2022, Las Vegas does not agree with you.
The Vikings won the NFC North for the first time since 2017 with new head coach Kevin O’Connell and recorded an NFL-record 11-0 win-loss standing in one-score games. But those fancy factoids evidently don’t translate to longterm success, according to oddsmakers.
Vikings 2023 Super Bowl Odds Raise Some Eyebrows
Sportsbooks dropped 2023 Super Bowl odds for every NFL team last week, and the Vikings checked in with the 20th-best odds to win the whole tamale — a +5000 moneyline some eight months before the next regular season begins.
Right before the 2022 season began, Minnesota actually had better odds than the forecast for 2023 released last week. The Vikings had a +3600 moneyline to hoist a Lombardi when 2022 odds updated just before Week 1 four months ago.
What does this mean? Simple — sportsbooks emphatically don’t believe the Vikings 2022 success is sustainable. O’Connell’s men were the first team in NFL history to win 13 games while showcasing an upside-down point differential. Opponents somehow outscored the Vikings by three points in 2022, but Minnesota ended the season with a 13-4 win-loss standing. Bonkers.
There’s also the Vikings defense, which was rather stinky in 2022, especially during the brief playoff blip. Minnesota finished 27th leaguewide in defensive DVOA, 28th in points allowed to opponents, 31st in Yards Allowed, and 31st in 15+ yard plays allowed. To its credit, the defense often forced turnovers, and the Vikings were nearly unbeatable in those games.
Minnesota’s defense was mostly terrible in 2022, and the defensive coordinator was fired accordingly four days after their season ended. Oddsmakers apparently don’t believe the defense can be remedied by “the new guy” at defensive coordinator in one offseason, no matter his identity. Such is life.
When the summer hits and NFL analysts start to prognosticate the 2023 season, expect the Vikings to inspire very few. Because of the aforementioned point differential, Minnesota will be everyone’s go-to target for regression. Meanwhile, the NFL experiences playoff-team turnover at a hearty clip. In a given season, only half of the playoff participants from the year before reach the January dance the following year. This tendency was on display in 2022. The Vikings will be a trendy pick for “teams that reached the playoffs in 2022 but won’t make it 2023.” Book it.
As for the +5000 Super Bowl moneyline, the Vikings are exact odds bedfellows with the Las Vegas Raiders, who share the +5000 probability. Stunningly, teams like the Cleveland Browns (+4500), Denver Broncos (+4000), and New Orleans Saints (+4000) have better odds of winning Super Bowl LVIII than the Vikings.
The NFL’s early favorites for next year? The Kansas City Chiefs (+550), Buffalo Bills (+550), and San Francisco 49ers (+700) — you know, the usual suspects.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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