It’s Dumb to Adjudicate the Vikings 2022 Draft Class Right Now
With the 2022 season in the rearview mirror and free agency still a month away, it is a good time to look back and see what took place. Some people on social media seem to think that the first draft with Kwesi Adofo-Mensah at the helm was a total disaster. What if I told you that is not the case?
It seems entirely reasonable to assume that one year does not define a draft class. However, some people like to believe that if a draft pick does not start in year one, the pick is a bust (feel free to use Twitter Search to see). We should really clear the air here, define what a bust is, and, more importantly, learn how to grade a draft class.
It’s Dumb to Adjudicate the Vikings 2022 Draft Class Right Now
First and foremost, any grading of a draft immediately after it is over is hogwash. We have no idea how these players will turn out in the NFL. A quarterback taken in the first round can turn out to be Josh Rosen, and one taken in the 4th round can turn out to be Kirk Cousins.
So how long should a person wait before grading a draft class? You should wait three years.
Three years is the sweet spot where most players will have shown their true selves. If they could make the transition from college to the NFL, we would know by now. Of course, there are outliers.
Giving the player three years to develop is a good rule of thumb. After all, people are malleable. They don’t stop learning and improving after their rookie year.
What is a Bust?
What exactly is a bust in terms of an NFL player? Most people are going to have a different answer for this. However, it is probably best to view this in terms of when the player was drafted.
A first-round draft pick should be a starter in their first year. However, even here, you can break it up into smaller sections. A top-10 or 15 pick should be a day-one starter, a bonafide stud. Later draft picks might need a little extra time to learn but should still become a starter at some point in their rookie year.
When it comes to rounds 2 through 4, there is a little more leeway. These players in a draft class should be competing for a starter role in their rookie year. Although they might not get the start as they likely have some technique or strength issues to correct. However, they should be contributors on the team at some point in their rookie year, even if that is only as a rotational or special teams player.
Late-round picks are really a crap shoot. If a guy is being drafted at this point, it is because there are holes in their game that need to be fixed. Do not expect them to contribute much outside special teams in their rookie year. Some 6th and 7th-round picks should be considered a win if they make the team for two years.
Once again, there will be outliers everywhere. That is the nature of the draft and the unpredictability of the NFL. However, these are good baselines to use when evaluating whether a player is a bust.
One last thing, if a player is injured during their rookie season, they are not a bust. I repeat, they are not a bust.
The Vikings 2022 Draft Class Review
Now that we have established how to identify a bust, let’s review the Vikings 2022 draft class with the disclaimer that we know nothing yet for two more seasons.
- Lewis Cine – We will never know if Cine would have replaced Bynum later in the Vikings season as he had a catastrophic injury. Ruling: Not a bust. 2023 is his real rookie year and could be a great one with Brian Flores.
- Andrew Booth Jr. – Booth was always a guy who needed some time to learn and adjust to the NFL. If he can come back from his injuries, there is a chance he could win a starting job. Ruling: Not a bust, but could be as injury history is a concern.
- Ed Ingram – A day-one starter who showed signs of improvement later in the season. Ruling: Not a bust. Definitely no Wyatt Davis.
- Brian Asamoah – He contributed throughout his rookie season. Ruling: Not a bust and things look very promising.
- Akaleyb Evans – He made some plays early in the season before too many concussions sidelined him for the year. Ruling: Not a bust. Could be a decent starter/good backup, but concussions are unnerving.
- Esezi Otomewo – He saw some action late in blowout games and at the end of the season. He also had some special teams snaps. Ruling: Not a bust.
- Ty Chandler – He was injured for the majority of the season but did see some special teams play. Ruling: Not a bust.
- Vederian Lowe – He made the team and had limited action on special teams and played some offensive snaps in week 18. Ruling: Not a bust.
- Jalen Nailor – He was a significant contributor to special teams throughout the year. Ruling: Not a bust.
- Nick Muse – He made the team and contributed to special teams. Ruling: Not a bust.
Mitch Massman is a lifelong Vikings fan. His first heartbreak was the 1998 NFC championship game. His full-time job is as an economic development professional in rural Minnesota. He fantasizes about the Vikings winning a Super Bowl one day, but until then he will write about the Vikings. Follow him on Twitter @skol_vikings3
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