Why Has the Vikings Pass Defense Faltered Lately?
Cole Smith
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Why Has the Vikings Pass Defense Faltered Lately?
Everyone saw the graphic that FOX shared on its broadcast of the Minnesota Vikings-Detroit Lions game. The Vikings had given up over 400 yards of offense for the fifth game in a row, a franchise worst. Jared Goff put together one of his best performances of the season. He completed 29/37 passes for three touchdowns and zero picks.
This has become a weekly routine for the Vikings since their bye week. Humans like Mike White and Mac Jones have also lit the Vikings defense up, setting season-highs for passing yards against a “bend-but-don’t-break” defense that has broken a lot lately. Now, with Matt Ryan and the Colts on the horizon, fans are left wondering if he’ll have a return to his 2016 MVP form on Saturday.
With the playoffs approaching, the Vikings defense, specifically against the pass, is playing worse than it has all season. Yes, there have been injuries to Cam Dantzler, Akaleb Evans, and even Harrison Smith. But the ease at which teams are moving the ball is worrisome. The Vikings didn’t force Detroit to punt once on Sunday, squandering brilliant performances by Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson.
Why Has the Vikings Pass Defense Faltered Lately?
When looking at recent trends, opponents have been attacking the Vikings’ pass defense differently since the Week 7 bye. In the season’s first six games, opposing quarterbacks had an average depth of target (ADOT) of 9.2 yards. Because the ball was going further downfield, quarterbacks were holding the ball longer, an average of 2.82 seconds.
In the seven games since the bye week, offenses have opted to attack the Vikings’ defense with shorter, quicker passes. Since Week 8, quarterbacks have an ADOT of 7.9 yards and have thrown the ball in 2.72 seconds. This included the debacle against the Cowboys, where Dak Prescott had an ADOT of 6.0 yards, the second-fewest against the Vikings all season.
Naturally, this approach also affects the type of game-changing plays the Vikings’ defense counted on during the first six games of the year. Although the Vikings haven’t had a great statistical defense all season, they were able to get to the quarterback and force takeaways consistently. Before the bye week, the Vikings averaged 2.83 sacks and 1.67 takeaways per game. Since the bye week, Minnesota’s defense only averages 1.86 sacks and 1.29 takeaways per game.
However, the trend gets even worse the deeper you dig. Over the past four games, the Vikings have only racked up four total sacks. And after forcing at least one turnover in the season’s first nine games, they only have two takeaways over the past four games. Both takeaways came against Mike White and the New York Jets.
As teams have adjusted to the Vikings’ defense, it is now time for the Vikings’ defense to adjust as well. Kevin O’Connell said this week that he isn’t considering a change for defensive playcalling “as of right now.” But with his team sitting at 10-3 and a good chance of snagging the NFC’s No. 2 seed, O’Connell will expect adjustments moving forward. Perhaps mixing things up can get the pass defense back to a somewhat respectable status.
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