Sep 15, 2019; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass during the first half against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports.
The Vegas point spread for Bills-Vikings has fluctuated significantly in the last six days, always staying on the side of a Bills win.
The line opened at 9.5 points favoring Buffalo, but as Josh Allen missed practice throughout the week, the spread shrunk on Friday to just three points on Buffalo’s side.
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Fast forward to late Saturday afternoon — with the NFL world chirping that Allen will likely play in Week 10 — and the line settled at 6.5 points. And it’s the first time the Vikings have experienced underdog status since Week 2 when the team lost at Philadelphia.
Why the sudden change on Allen’s availability? Simple — Buffalo declined to elevate QB3 Matt Barkley, the logical step if Allen was to miss the contest. Therefore, Allen will either start per usual as the Bills QB1 or be the only “emergency backup” behind Case Keenum. It’s actually not unheard of for a team to use the latter strategy, but if Allen’s elbow is risky, why would Buffalo risk it at all during the middle of the regular season?
Moreover, Vegas doesn’t operate on whims and conspiracy theories. If it bumped the point spread back to near a touchdown in favor of the Bills — that’s exactly what it did — oddsmakers did so for a reason. Vegas never lies. It might rip you off — like all the time — but it doesn’t fool around with points spreads for feces and giggles.
Too, the who’s-who of NFL reporting believes Allen will start.
And another one:
Per most credible statistical metrics, Allen is around the NFL’s fourth-best passer through nine weeks of 2022, so his impact is gargantuan. His backup, Keenum — Vikings fans have stories about the man — is no slouch, but Allen is simply on another level. He’s even the frontrunner to snag the NFL MVP award.
Josh Allen’s first career win happened against the Vikings in 2018, and it appears, per oddsmakers, he’ll take a crack at win No. 2 on Sunday.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).