The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 14

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 14, with a road contest at the Detroit Lions up next. In Week 13, Kevin O’Connell’s team won its 10th game of 2022, outlasting the New York Jets in a whirlwind bout between 9-2 and 7-4 teams.

FiveThirty Eight = 99%

Change from Last Week = no change

Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight decided after Week 13 that Minnesota was the eighth-best team in football with the second most-likely odds to reach the playoffs. Last week, FiveThirty pegged Minnesota as the NFL’s 10th-best team.

The Vikings have reached shoo-in status to win the NFC North, which would be their first such achievement since 2017. At Detroit in Week 14, Minnesota can take home the division.

Football Outsiders = 99.9%

Change from Last Week = +0.6%

Image Courtesy of Football Outsiders

The Vikings squeaker over New York all but guaranteed a playoff spot, although the team really wasn’t in jeopardy, regardless.

The Vikings are going to playoffs, and now the focus is on the No. 1, 2, and 3 seeding.

Sportsbooks = 99.0%

Change from Last Week = No change

Minnesota’s odds per sportsbooks of reaching the postseason stayed the same after Week 13, as the Vikings stand atop the NFC North while Green Bay and Detroit fight for second place. For Detroit to win the division, the Vikings must go 0-5, while the Lions finish 5-0 — and hope for favorable tiebreakers.

The Vikings playoff moneyline right now is -10000. = 99%

Change from Last Week = No change

This site leans heavier on wins’ and losses’ impact on the postseason. It doesn’t factor in predictive, intuitive measures like FiveThirtyEight. It considers the Vikings sure-fire playoff participants. According to the site, the Vikings are the second most-likely franchise to reach the postseason behind the Philadelphia Eagles. When the season began, the site listed the Vikings at 43%.

The Vikings take on the Lions in Week 14 at Ford Field. Minnesota is an early one-point favorite.

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).