Week 15 NFL Picks: The 25-Year Drought Comes to an End

Can The Vikings Defense Keep Standing Up?
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

Week 14 was a very nice bounce-back week for this picks series, and we went 5-2, inching closer to a winning record for the season. Now, we have a great chance to finally get back above .500 with the Week 15 NFL picks. Before we get into those, though, here’s a reminder of how Week 14 went:

  • Lions -2 (W)
  • Vikings/Lions O43 points (W)
  • Eagles -7 (W)
  • Bengals -5.5 (W)
  • Browns/Bengals U47 points (W)
  • Buccaneers +3.5 (L)
  • Dolphins -3.5 (L)

Season Record: 47-48-3

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • Spread: 49ers -3
  • 49ers ML: -175
  • Seahawks ML: +155
  • O/U: 43.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Seahawks +3

The San Francisco 49ers have gotten off to a roaring start with Brock Purdy as their quarterback. On the other side, the Seahawks have gone into a freefall, losing three of their last four games. This includes a loss to the Carolina Panthers this past weekend.https://09be26e77a1accc49ba24a463c197e1f.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-40/html/container.html

Because of that, it may seem odd that the 49ers are only favored by three points this week. Well, on a short week, both Purdy and Deebo Samuel are battling through injuries right now, and it’s uncertain whether either of them will play on Thursday. In a division rivalry game, I’m going to take the home team that desperately needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports.
  • Spread: Vikings -4
  • Colts ML: +175
  • Vikings ML: -205
  • O/U: 48.5

Frey’s Picks: Vikings -4, U48.5

The Minnesota Vikings defense got stomped last weekend. There’s simply no other way around it. This week, this is a team that needs to make a statement, and they’ve got the perfect team to do that against. The Indianapolis Colts have floundered to a 4-8-1 record, and their QB Matt Ryan is more prone to turnovers than any other in the league.

This Vikings defense thrives on forcing turnovers, and I believe they’ll be able to do so. However, on the other side, the Colts defense is nothing to turn your nose up at, no matter how good Justin Jefferson is. This will be a low-scoring game, but the Vikings will end up on top.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins linebacker Melvin Ingram (6) sacks Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen causing a fumble in the first half of an NFL game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Sept. 25, 2022. Syndication Palm Beach Post
  • Spread: Bills -7
  • Dolphins ML: +265
  • Bills ML: -315
  • O/U: 43.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Bills -7

When these two teams met in Miami, the Dolphins came away with a victory in a defensive 21-19 battle. Since then, the Bills have gone 8-2 and taken firm control of the AFC East. Now they have a chance to clinch the division with a victory against a Dolphins team that has looked vulnerable over the past two weeks. In a home game, I’d expect the Bills to come out firing to get their third straight division crown.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears

Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports
  • Spread: Eagles -9
  • Eagles ML: -405
  • Bears ML: +325
  • O/U: 48.5 points

Frey’s Picks: Bears +9U48.5 points

There’s a reason the Eagles have gone into the free agency pool multiple times looking for help on the defensive front. This team has quietly been bad against the run this season, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. This week, they get the ultimate test against a run-first offense in Justin Fields’ Chicago Bears.

Making matters worse, this is a Bears team coming off a bye week, fully rested, while the Eagles have had to play the Titans and go on the road against their division rival New York Giants. Granted, they’ve beaten the brakes off of both those teams, but this could be a situation where the Eagles are looking ahead to another road divisional game against the Cowboys. The Bears will keep this game close.

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports
  • Spread: Commanders -4.5
  • Giants ML: +190
  • Commanders ML: -220
  • O/U: 40.5

Frey’s Pick: Commanders -4.5

The last time these two teams met, it was just a couple weeks ago, and the game ended in a tie. For that reason, it seems confusing that the spread is more than a field goal for the second matchup in three weeks, but the Commanders are trending much higher than the Giants right now.

New York is coming off a game where they got obliterated by the Philadelphia Eagles while the Commanders got to rest up on their bye, and they should be well rested for their home game that could essentially seal their fate as the No. 6 seed in the NFC.

Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho with a bachelor’s degree in Creative Writing. He also earned minors in History, Human Biology, and Journalism. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys marathon training, playing video games, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. For more of his opinions, check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.