The Vikings Are Now Favorites in the NFC North

Kirk Cousins Does It Again
Oct 9, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) and quarterback Kirk Cousins. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

The Minnesota Vikings snagged a win on the back of a terrific offensive performance against the Chicago Bears on Sunday. This win became even bigger considering it came on the heels of the Green Bay Packers losing to the New York Giants in London. Due to this sequence of events, the Vikings have become the favorites in the NFC North, both among the analytics crowd and in Vegas.

First, let’s get into some of the analytics. Football Outsiders releases a list of playoff odds, breaking down each team’s chances of making the playoffs that season.

According to the site, the Minnesota Vikings now have an 81.1% chance of making the dance in January. They also have a 56.9% chance of winning the NFC North, leap-frogging the Green Bay Packers who stand at 36.2%.

Looking at the final standings projections, Football Outsiders predicts that Vikings fans should get ready to buy some playoff tickets to U.S. Bank Stadium because they believe Minnesota’s most likely seeding will be No. 2 in the NFC at 20.6%. Here’s a look at Minnesota’s odds at landing anywhere from Nos. 1-7:

  • No. 1: 5.2%
  • No. 2: 20.6%
  • No.3: 19.5%
  • No. 4: 11.7%
  • No. 5: 6.3%
  • No. 6: 9.7%
  • No. 7: 8.1%
  • Miss playoffs: 18.9%

And here are the seven teams with the highest odds to make the playoffs in the NFC:

  1. Philadelphia Eagles: 98.6%
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 87.8%
  3. Dallas Cowboys: 84.7%
  4. Minnesota Vikings: 81.1%
  5. San Francisco 49ers: 74.5%
  6. Green Bay Packers: 67.1%
  7. New York Giants: 42.1%

Despite Minnesota’s high chances of making the playoffs and playing a home game during the tournament, the Vikings have just the 10th best chance to win the Super Bowl at 2.9%. The top spot goes to the Buffalo Bills at a whopping 24.6%.

Funny enough, these two teams combine for the ninth-most likely Super Bowl matchup at exactly 3%. The duel humorously has been dubbed as the ‘Fifth Time’s the Charm” matchup.

As for betting odds, the Minnesota Vikings are now listed at -140 to win the NFC North on BetOnline.ag. The Packers have fallen to +110 to come out with their fourth consecutive division title. The Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears have fallen far behind over the past couple weeks. Detroit has +3300 to win the North while Chicago sits at +5000.

This week, the Vikings head on the road to take on the Miami Dolphins in south Florida. There’s a very good chance that they can raise their playoff odds even further as it seems seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson likely gets the start for Miami.

Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho with a bachelor’s degree in Creative Writing as well as minors in History, Human Biology, and Journalism. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys marathon training, playing video games, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. For more of his takes, NFL and otherwise, check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken