The Dirty Little Stat from the 2021 Vikings Season
The obligatory “blame game” is afoot for the Minnesota Vikings after the franchise showcased another mediocre season. The Vikings will finish 8-9 or 7-10, missing the playoffs for the third time in four years.
For a team that rosters Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks, Harrison Smith, Adam Thielen, and Kirk Cousins – that ain’t good enough.
Therefore, the general manager, head coach, and quarterback will be held accountable, and one or some of those men may be jettisoned.
Since the start of the 2020, the Vikings defense cliff-dove to 26th in the NFL per EPA/Play, otherwise called seventh-worst in some circles. During Zimmer’s first six seasons, 2014-2019, the Vikings ranked #1 in the NFL for defensive EPA/Play.
The mighty have fallen.
While the defensive collapse over the last two seasons is the primary culprit for the Vikings recent problems, one damning statistic indicts the 2021 offense, too.
And that is offensive 3rd Down efficiency. In 2021, Minnesota is the league’s fifth-worst team for converting 3rd Downs, only extending drive 35.3% of the time. Good teams don’t stall on 3rd Down. Coincidentally, the Vikings are not a good team, particularly the 3rd Down offense called by offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
Here are the Vikings rankings on offensive 3rd Downs amid the Zimmer era, and one can view a pretty distinct playoff correlation when the sticks are moved:
No wonder the 2017 team thrived when paired with the NFL’s best defense. They stopped opponents on 3rd Down to the tune of tops in NFL, and Case Keenum and friends converted 3rd Downs at the highest rate in the business.
Now, though, operations are different. The Vikings still stop opponents on 3rd Down – they rank sixth in the NFL for this in 2021 – but they do not move the sticks offensively.
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In the last decade, teams that converted 3rd Downs a clip below 36% — like these Vikings – made the playoffs 14% of the time. Usually, bad teams fail on 3rd Downs and thus miss the postseason. To a degree, that’s the 2021 Vikings.
If a team cannot convert 3rd Downs on offense, it needs a rip-roaring defense to supplement. For example, the 2015 Denver Broncos converted 3rd Downs 32.9% of the time. Terrible. However, the defense, led by Von Miller, was fearsome once the playoffs rolled around. Badda bing — a Super Bowl championship.
The Vikings do not have a stellar defense, ranking second-to-last in the league for yards allowed.
Couple that poor defense with an offense that seldom converts 3rd Downs – and you have a playoff-less season and a head coach on a hot seat.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
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