Should They Stay Or Should They Go? Analyzing Who Will Be Back for Vikings in 2022
After an up-and-down season that resulted in back-to-back seasons without a playoff appearance, many changes are expected to come for the Vikings next week.
It is all but certain the Vikings will be searching for a new coach, and they may be looking for a new general manager as well. The Vikings will be entering an offseason of change with as many as twenty players expecting to become free agents and other contributors who could be released or traded.
The starting lineup changed a variety of times throughout these 17 weeks, but we will be examining the projected starters from the first day of training camp, trying to figure out which of them will be retained by the new staff and who will be walking out the door.
The biggest name that could depart is probably quarterback Kirk Cousins. I think with a cap hit for 2022 at $45M, and with a new staff incoming wanting a change of culture, it is more likely that Kirk Cousins will be traded this offseason. There is an abundance of teams searching for a starting QB of Cousins’ caliber, and by moving on, the Vikings can be granted the ability to reset their roster and potentially rebuild while also getting valuable draft assets as well. I will dive further into the potential destinations, but there are potentially six or seven teams who could come calling about Cousins.
The RB room could be interesting. The incoming staff could be tempted to move off of the $5 million-ish dead cap of Dalvin Cook. But when healthy, he is crucial to the team’s success. Especially with a new quarterback on board, having Cook could help the Vikings move forward. It will genuinely depend upon who is hired as head coach, but I currently see Cook back in 2022.
The projected starters at WR from training camp probably both stay. In fact, the top three WRs of Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and KJ Osborn probably remain. However, there are no guarantees. Although there is some amount of dead cap, it’s possible that the new staff comes in and decides to move on from Adam Thielen to create more cap space, allowing Thielen to contend elsewhere.
However, assuming he wants to stay in Minnesota, that’s a solid base for a WR group for whoever is starting at quarterback. The projected starting TE didn’t end up playing one snap all season, and that was a shame, as Irv Smith Jr. appeared to be making great strides in camp and the preseason before tearing his meniscus in the final preseason game. Assuming he is healthy, he should be better than ever. Tyler Conklin had a breakout campaign in 2021 in Smith Jr.’s place but is likely gone as he will look to cash in elsewhere as a free agent this spring.
The starting offensive line in training camp didn’t shake out as the actual starting group when the season started. Yet, the most successful starting combination features four players under contract for 2022, with Christian Darrisaw, Ezra Cleveland both on their rookie deals, Brian O’Neill signed long-term, and Garrett Bradbury on the fourth year of his rookie deal.
The most significant question mark is still at the interior offensive line, which was hot and cold all season. Mason Cole, who performed the best on the interior, is a free agent, and it will be interesting to see what the new Vikings front office and coaching staff decide to do with the interior of the offensive line. Darrisaw, Cleveland, and O’Neill seem like keepers, with Bradbury possibly out the door and improvements perhaps necessary both at center and at right guard.
On the defensive side of the ball, I could see as many as eight starters elsewhere in 2022. That is, of course, not counting Bashad Breeland, who was cut prior to the Bears game.
Anthony Barr’s time in purple appears over as he will be a free agent and has dealt with numerous health issues over the past two seasons. Other expected unrestricted free agents like Sheldon Richardson and Patrick Peterson could also be gone depending upon who the next coach will be. I think the only starter guaranteed to return is Eric Kendricks, as his contract is fairly reasonable, and he has proved consistent for many years.
The biggest potential uncertainty regarding the defensive front two linemen who missed a combined 58 games over the past two seasons. Although, when on the field, he has proved to be a monster, Michael Pierce just hasn’t been able to stay on the field due to opting out due to COVID concerns in 2020 and missing approximately half of 2021 with torn triceps.
By releasing Pierce, the Vikings would receive an additional $6.5M in cap space and would be able to provide more playing time to young defensive linemen like Armon Watts and James Lynch. Both Watts and Lynch have proven capable in place of Pierce throughout the several games he missed this season.
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The other lineman who could be a surprising departure is DE Danielle Hunter. Hunter has been arguably the Vikings’ best player over the past five years. He missed all of 2020 due to a neck injury and wanted an increase in his contract prior to the 2021 season. In a compromise, the Vikings gave him a hefty bonus of $18M due on the third day of the 2022 offseason in March. They can either release or trade him prior to that date, or they could choose to extend him to lower their cap hit but also by giving him more guaranteed money.
I don’t see any way that Hunter is playing in 2022 under the currently projected $26M cap charge, as I think a decision one way or the other on his future will be decided before the day that the bonus is due.
Harrison Smith will be back, although the money left guaranteed to him from the extension he agreed to in August will have been mostly paid to him by March, and if the Vikings chose to release him as a post-June 1 release, they would only be on the hook for $1.5M in dead cap.
However, Smith has been stellar in the 14 games this year, and with a new coaching staff already having a big priority of remaking the rest of the secondary, it would be beneficial for them to have a veteran like Smith around.
Recent acquisition Dalvin Tomlinson also had a somewhat good season, although the run defense has ranked near the bottom of the league in every major statistic that measures stopping the run. But Tomlinson has been good at helping to create pressure. Whoever steps in the front office — boss and head coach — will be tasked with revamping the defense.
The special teams have been relatively solid this year with new personnel. Greg Joseph missed the game-winning kick at Arizona but otherwise has been pretty solid, especially from beyond 50 yards.
Jordan Berry has also been consistent. Both are free agents, so it will be interesting to see what offers both get from the Vikings compared to other teams.
There will absolutely be changes in the front office and the coaching staff. With that comes personnel changes, too. How much is yet to be seen, but we can expect some significant players to be elsewhere in 2022 while some major contributors should be back. It will be an intriguing offseason for the Vikings and their fans.
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