How the Vikings Could Play the Packers in the Playoffs
Dustin Baker
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How the Vikings Could Play the Packers in the Playoffs
The Green Bay Packers can still “run the table” and have an excellent chance to reach the postseason, even with a 5-8 record through 13 games. They would need help along the way, mainly from the Washington Commanders, but the scenario is feasible. If the Packers do beat the Rams, Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions, they have a 68% of reaching the postseason via the NFC’s No. 7 seed.
For Aaron Rodgers and friends, the quest begins on Monday night, hosting the surprisingly bad Los Angeles Rams, led by Baker Mayfield, of all people. Should the Packers lose to Mayfield and Co., their playoff dreams are all but kaput, holding a 0.6% probability of reaching the playoffs in that hypothetical scenario.
And if things get funky — the Packers win four straight while the Commanders lose two of their final three games (at SF, CLE, DAL) — the Vikings could realistically host the Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium on Wildcard Weekend.
How the Vikings Could Play the Packers in the Playoffs
Here’s the overall formula that would likely create Vikings-Packers in Round 1 of the postseason:
- The Packers beat the Rams, Dolphins, Vikings, and Lions
- The Vikings lose to the Packers but stay one game ahead of the 49ers
- The Commanders lose two of three to the 49ers, Browns, and Cowboys
This would, in all likelihood, barring several ties and such, generate the Vikings and Packers in Round 1, with Minnesota as the No. 2 seed and Green Bay at No. 7.
Generally speaking, the showdown is unlikely because, well, it’s improbable that the Packers suddenly win the next four games while the rest of the league acts exactly as Green Bay requires. The 49ers schedule? Vs. Commanders, at Raiders, vs. Cardinals. That isn’t terribly gruesome, particularly for a team as hot as San Francisco. If the Vikings lose a game, they will probably be relegated to the No. 3 seed — and stay there.
Moreover, if the Packers win the next few games, their unlikely playoff hopes could boil down to a Week 18 date with the upstart Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Because the Commanders lost on Sunday Night Football to the Giants, the Packers-Lions matchup in Week 18 would be for all the marbles, assuming both teams continue to win until the hypothetically fateful matchup. The Lions remaining docket is at the Panthers, versus the Bears, and at the Packers.
Plus, the way that this season has gone for Minnesota — mind-boggling wins against the Bills and Colts but woeful losses to the Eagles and Cowboys — the Packers could actually be favored by sportsbooks if Vikings-Packers on wildcard weekend comes to fruition. It will have meant that Green Bay won their final five games, and oddsmakers may lean on Rodgers to further effectuate the storybook winning streak at the Vikings, a hated foe.
The Vikings and Packers last met in the postseason 10 years ago when Minnesota was led by Joe Webb at quarterback. The Packers won 24-10 in Wisconsin.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
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