Can the Vikings Win without Kirk Cousins?
Forty-five million is the number every Vikings fan has contemplated since the last snap against the Chicago Bears. Kirk Cousins is set to have a massive cap hit in 2022, but can the Vikings win without him?
That’s the question for Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell to decide.
While looking down the rabbit hole of every statistical conversation out there, the reality is that Kirk Cousins is a good quarterback. By numerous measures, he’s a top 10-talent, and the reason he’s got the cap hit he does is that he was the most handsomely paid free agent at the time and would have been even if Minnesota hadn’t written the check. So, if you want to move on from Kirk, the question becomes whether the Vikings can win with the replacement and what that means for the rest of the roster.
Short of trading for Deshaun Watson or Aaron Rodgers, it’s a pretty fair bet to suggest anyone replacing Kirk Cousins would have a lower talent level than he does. Whether the new leadership favors a guy being here on more than a one-year deal remains to be seen, but calling a replacement the bridge to something better would be more than fair. What moving on from Cousins does is allow for an allocation of dollars elsewhere. In a salary cap league, the greatest goal is to assemble the highest level of talent in the most harmonious way across the entirety of the roster. Regardless of how integral the quarterback position is, a single player can only mask deficiencies to a certain extent.
Let’s tackle this by group impacted should the new regime decide to part ways with their veteran signal-caller:
The Quarterbacks
First and foremost, you’d need to find someone else taking the snaps for Kirk. I fail to believe Kellen Mond is as incapable as Mike Zimmer made him out to be in 2022, but it’d be a stretch to suggest he’s ready to lead a team with deep playoff aspirations. Kirk probably isn’t being swapped for the best of the best, and a trade for the likes of Baker Mayfield has all of its own warts. How about free agency, though? The cream of the crop might be Jameis Winston coming off of injury. Teddy Bridgewater only walks through that door if Zimmer is still in charge, and even then, it’s more feel-good story than talent acquisition. That leaves veteran castoffs like Jacoby Brissett, Cam Newton, or Marcus Mariota.
There are varying levels of capability, and each has led teams at different times, but that’s a hard sell unless the 12th overall pick is used on a quarterback that’s seen as franchise-changing. All in all, the landscape of options to play the position not named Kirk Cousins aren’t great.
The Receivers
As things stand currently, the Minnesota Vikings might have one of the best one-two punches in the league. Justin Jefferson is the gift that keeps on giving, and Adam Thielen is the hometown hero that continues to get it done. While the latter will be coming off surgery, he should be expected for full health come training camp, and there’s still more gas in that tank. K.J. Osborn has emerged as a legitimate number three option, and 2021 draftee Ihmir Smith-Marsette is more than an intriguing option.
Under the previous coaching staff, tight ends were constantly involved in the offense. Irv Smith was due for a breakout year and has an exciting athleticism. Tyler Conklin established that he can be trusted with his hands and did a good deal to soften the blow of Minnesota’s starter. Dalvin Cook has also been reliable catching passes out of the backfield, and Kene Nwangu looks like a weapon ready to be unleashed.
How would this group feel taking a step back regarding accuracy or competency from their signal-caller? Kirk has many faults, and utilizing a risk-averse passing profile may be chief among them. More frustrating, however, could be a turnover machine or someone unable to hit talented playmakers in stride. This transition to a lesser thrower could undoubtedly become a story of wishing on the devil you knew.
The Spending
I wanted to call this “The Defense” but then remembered the state of Minnesota’s offensive line. The largest argument for trading Kirk Cousins is in the freed-up money that comes from avoiding his cap hit. The Vikings became atrocious on the defensive side of the ball in Zimmer’s final year, so it’s easy to suggest spending the additional cap there. Corners need a lot of work, an edge rusher would be nice, and age is catching up to other key talents.
That said, one of the biggest detractors from Cousins being able to elevate those around him can be pinned on his offensive line. Christian Darrisaw looks like a good pick, and Brian O’Neill was understandably extended. Ezra Cleveland has looked the part of a capable piece, but that’s where it ends. Garret Bradbury makes the turnstiles at Menards look like a museum piece, and for whatever reason, Wyatt Davis was never allowed to make his mark.
There’s no denying there would be cap relief in any situation that flips Cousins for a lesser talent without taking on his dollars. Are they enough, though, to adequately address the roster holes elsewhere? There’s also cap relief in a contract extension that pushes his hit further out, and that would allow for a General Manager with a background in advancement to bank on his draft picks and coach’s development on the fringes.
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I don’t know that there’s a right answer without knowing who “the guy” replacing Cousins would be. I do know that there’s not presently an option immediately available that’s better than what Minnesota has, and that makes for a scenario that could not only turn into a rebuild but waste so much of what’s already in place.
O’Connell will want to win a Super Bowl here as badly as Adofo-Mensah does. Do they start with talent that’s closer to getting them there, or pick their poison at one position and see it as an opportunity to push everything else forward?
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