The GM’s Keys for Vikings to beat the Lions
Jeff Diamond
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Vikings Insider, Keys to Vikings beating the Lions to get back to .500
“Must win” is an overused term in sports since the only real must wins are games that will eliminate a team from the playoff race or knock them out of the postseason if they qualify. So let’s call Sunday’s game at Detroit very important or I guess we can say it’s almost a must win.
If the 5-6 Vikings beat the winless Lions, they’ll boost their playoff chances before a key Thursday night matchup at home with the Steelers. After squeaking by Detroit 19-17 in October on a last second 54 yard field goal by Greg Joseph (after the Vikings blew a 10 point lead), Minnesota’s coaches and players expect the Lions to play them tough at Ford Field.
“They’ve been close in every ball game including against us so we’re going to have to play well and be good in all three phases,” Coach Mike Zimmer said. He obviously was talking about Detroit’s close games the past three weeks (a tie with Pittsburgh, three point loss to Cleveland and two point loss to Chicago) and not including the Lions getting blown out at home by Cincinnati and Philly earlier this season.
The Vikings will be seeking their ninth straight victory over the Lions and will have to do so without Dalvin Cook (shoulder injury) and probably will be missing their top cornerback Patrick Peterson who is on the Covid list.
Here are my keys to the Vikings beating the Lions:
1. Kirk Cousins return to his Chargers-Packers form: The Vikings QB has won three straight years in his home state against the Lions and torched them in last season’s finale at Ford Field with 405 yards passing and 3 TDs by air plus 1 rushing TD. He had two big completions to Adam Thielen on the winning drive earlier this season against Detroit.
The Lions have only 16 sacks this season, second worst in the league, so that’s good news for Cousins and his O-line although I’ll be concerned if left tackle Christian Darrisaw’s sore ankle prevents him from playing (so Rashod Hill starts) or limits his effectiveness. Cousins needs to play with confidence and throw with accuracy as he did in the two weeks prior to his poor second half in San Francisco.
Justin Jefferson, who was named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for November, has been terrific in the last two wins over Detroit (16 catches, 257 yards). He must be targeted often against a mediocre secondary and Cousins must continue to hit Adam Thielen in the red zone (he has 10 TD catches this season, tied for the NFL lead) and go to Tyler Conklin and K.J. Osborn when they’re open.
2. Alexander Mattison and Kene Nwangwu time: With no Cook, Mattison will start and needs to play well in both the running and passing games. I think he’s one of the league’s best No.2 backs. He replaced Cook against Detroit in Week 5 and was excellent (115 yards rushing, 7 catches for 40 yards and 1 TD) until his costly lost fumble at the Minnesota 21 with two minutes left. He also had 145 combined yards and a receiving TD last year at Detroit.
I’m excited–as are most Vikings observers—to see kickoff return ace Kene Nwangwu get his first extended playing time at running back when he relieves Mattison. I was impressed back in training camp as I watched the fourth round pick run the ball with speed and power.
The Lions rank 29th against the run so there should be plenty of opportunities for production if, as Zimmer says, the O-line can stop the penetration by defenders that has hurt the run game recently.
3. The return of Dalvin Tomlinson and Michael Pierce and can the secondary hold up? Tomlinson and Pierce were big free agent signings the last two offseasons and both have played well at times but neither has been consistently great. Pierce has been out since Week 4 with an elbow injury while Tomlinson missed the 49ers game due to Covid. Both Vikings returned to practice this week and it will be key that they can step in and produce in beating the Lions. It’s essential to stop the run against a Lions team that wants to lean on the run but is expected to be without their top back D’Andre Swift (shoulder injury).
In Pierce’s absence, Armon Watts has played very well with 4 sacks, 6 QB hits and 31 tackles through 11 games. If the Vikings can rotate Watts, Tomlinson and Pierce along with James Lynch inside and keep Sheldon Richardson at defensive end with an improving D.J. Wonnum, the D-line may be ok without Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen (who combined for three of the four Vikings sacks on Jared Goff in the October win over Detroit).
Minnesota must contain the run game led by ex-Packer Jamaal Williams and pressure Goff who has played well the past couple weeks as he’s gotten healthier. He completed 84% of his passes against Chicago and he has one of the league’s top tight ends as his main target—T.J. Hockenson (57 receptions, 534 yards, 3 TDs). The Vikings linebackers and safeties will have to keep a close watch on Hockenson, the former Iowa Hawkeye.
4. Finish the first half better, defense: “That’s definitely an area of focus for us,” safety Harrison Smith said in talking about the defense allowing a league-high 66 points in the last two minutes of the first half which was problematic again last week when the 49ers had a 15 play, 85 yard TD drive to tie the game.
5. No missed PATs: Greg Joseph’s missed extra point after the Vikings pulled within 28-20 last week forced Minnesota to chase that point the rest of the game. Joseph must convert his PATs and makeable field goals. And more long kickoff returns from Nwangwu (averaging a league-leading 41 yards per return) can help the Vikings’ cause.
6. Win turnover battle: it was costly at San Fran when the Vikings turned it over twice deep in their own territory which resulted in 10 points. It is key that the Vikings are +5 vs. the Lions -1 in turnover differential so the edge should go to Minnesota this week in beating the turnover battle.
7. Advantageous to get a lead and rotate players with a short week ahead: this may be wishful thinking for Mike Zimmer since his team has played 10 one-score games out of 11 this season but with the Steelers coming up four days later, it would be helpful to get a big lead and rest some starters in the second half.
Jeff’s Prediction: The Lions and their feisty Coach Dan Campbell badly want to get off the schneid.
Zimmer has wisely lightened the practice load this week after a physical game on a west coast trip and with Pittsburgh coming up in a short week. Considering all the Vikings close games this season and the Lions playing teams tough lately, why should we think the Purple will blow out Detroit or any team the rest of the way? I see a tight game that Minnesota wins 26-20 with big games from Cousins and Jefferson leading the way.
Around the NFL Observations:
1. Game of the week is New England at Buffalo for the AFC East lead. Pats have won six straight and Bills are up and down and have lost their best defensive player for the season—corner Tre’Davious White. But I think Josh Allen outduels hot rookie Mac Jones before a raucous home crowd. .
2. Antonio Brown continues to be ridiculous: After all his drama on and off the field the past several years that cost him millions in salary, Brown was playing well in Tampa Bay before an ankle injury sidelined him. Now he’s suspended for three games after violating NFL Covid protocols, reportedly for misrepresenting his vaccination status. Media reports have said Brown was accused of owning a fake vaccination card.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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