How to Take Down the Los Angeles Rams
Vikings Insider, The GM’s View
Will the third time be the charm in the attempt to get over .500 for the 2021 Vikings? Twice previously—in Week 8 when they were 3-3 and Week 12 at 5-5, Minnesota was unsuccessful in losses to Dallas and San Francisco, respectively.This Sunday will be the next test as the 7-7 Vikings face a swing game with the NFC West co-leading Rams who have won three straight. L.A. will come to U.S. Bank Stadium on less rest than Minnesota since the Rams beat Seattle on Tuesday night in a game delayed due to a massive Covid outbreak that sidelined 16 Rams players including three starters—tight end Tyler Higbee, right tackle Rob Havenstein and safety Jordan Fuller.
Rams Coach Sean McVay said he’s “mentally and physically exhausted” after a hellish week of juggling his roster. But the Vikings have their own major Covid problem as they will be without one of their top weapons—NFC leading rusher Dalvin Cook—who tested positive this week.
The Rams are loaded with veteran stars after trading the past couple years for quarterback Matthew Stafford, cornerback Jalen Ramsey and edge rusher Von Miller while signing receiver Odell Beckham after he was waived by the Browns last month and edge rusher Leonard Floyd in 2020 free agency. They also will test the Minnesota corners with the NFL’s leading receiver in three categories—Cooper Kupp (122 catches, 1,625 yards, 14 TDs) while three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald is a handful on defense.
Perhaps the Vikings can do what their predecessors did back in the 1960s and 1970s in knocking off the Rams three times (enroute to the Super Bowl) when they came to Minnesota for December matchups. But those games were played outside at frigid Met Stadium as opposed to the comfy temps inside U.S. Bank Stadium.
Most importantly, the Vikings will try to hold onto the final NFC wild card spot ahead of New Orleans and Philadelphia. Wins over the Rams, Packers and Bears the next three weeks would guarantee Minnesota a playoff spot but that’s a very tough task beginning Sunday.
Here are my keys to the Vikings beating the Rams:
- Even without their top back, the Vikings must have some success running: Fortunately for Minnesota, Alexander Mattison is now off the Covid list. He doesn’t have Cook’s speed and vision but he’s one of the league’s best No. 2 backs. And Kene Nwangwu showed some of Cook’s explosiveness in a couple carries against the Bears so he’ll have a chance to make an impact.
Minnesota must be able to run especially if the Rams play their safeties deep in coverage and the run game can take some pressure off Cousins while setting up play action passes. In their 31-10 win over the Rams a month ago, the 49ers rushed for 156 yards so it can be done. - Get Thielen back: I thought the Vikings needed all their top playmakers to beat the Rams and without Cook, it’s even more important that Thielen returns from his ankle sprain (and he says he’s pushing hard to do so). Cousins is more comfortable when Thielen is in the lineup with Justin Jefferson due to his third down and red zone proficiency. Thielen also would have opportunities with Rams all-pro corner Jalen Ramsey likely to be focused on Jefferson.
Cousins still needs to target Jefferson against Ramsey especially on intermediate routes and contested sideline deep balls. That’s what the Packers did with Davante Adams when he had 8 catches for 104 yards and Aaron Rodgers threw for 307 yards in Green Bay’s win over the Rams last month. And 49ers tight end George Kittle caught 5 passes for 50 yards and a TD vs. L.A. so Tyler Conklin could have a big day against the Rams linebackers and safeties (especially if Fuller is still out). - Double team Donald and chip on Floyd and Miller: the Rams have been average on pass defense this season (ranked No. 16) but they have three potential game-wreaking pass rushers in Donald (11 sacks, 66 tackles), Floyd (9 sacks) and Miller (who had a sack, 2 QB hits and 2 tackles for loss vs. Seattle).
The Vikings must double team Donald on virtually every snap, unlike how they had guard Mason Cole trying unsuccessfully to block Chicago’s Akiem Hicks on Monday night. Tackle Brian O’Neill should be able to handle the right side but Christian Darrisaw will need help via backs and tight ends chipping on Floyd or Miller. - Stop the run and pressure Stafford who the Vikings handled the last few years in Detroit: he’s had a great year, ranking second in passer rating (108.2 with 35 TD passes, 10 interceptions) but he has turned it over and been sacked a lot in the past against Minnesota and had two turnovers in both the 49ers and Packers losses. The Vikings lead the league with 44 sacks and they’ll need another big effort from the D-line as was the case in Chicago along with a few timely blitzes (but not too many with all the Rams receiving weapons).
The Vikings also must control the Rams run game in order to make them one dimensional. Strong play is needed from everyone in the Minnesota front seven to ease the pressure on the secondary. - Huge test for Vikings corners: I’m not feeling confident about the Vikings corners taking on L.A.’s talented trio of wide receivers led by Kupp who has double digit targets weekly along with the dangerous Beckham and Van Jefferson. Patrick Peterson comes off a fine performance against the Bears and knows Cupp from his Cardinals years.
Cam Dantzler and Mackensie Alexander will have to play well in their matchups and the Vikings coaches must give Dantzler help from the safeties. Pro Bowler Harrison Smith, fellow safety Xavier Woods and linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr will need to be all over the field, stopping the run and helping in coverage. - The Rams have a Pro Bowl kicker but otherwise special teams edge to Vikings: Rams kicker Matt Gay has made 28 of 29 field goals so he’s a weapon for L.A. But the Vikings have an advantage on kick returns and perhaps can bust a big kickoff or punt return with Nwangwu or Dede Westbrook.
The Rams likely will try to block a punt after Jordan Berry had one deflected last week due to a slow release and a protection breakdown so the Vikings must shore things up in the punt game.
Jeff’s Prediction: Before Cook went on the Covid list, I was picking the Vikings as the Rams may be energy deficient after their short week following a physical divisional game. They need a win in their quest for the NFC West title over struggling Arizona (who just got drilled by the Lions). But Minnesota should be the more desperate team since the 10-4 Rams know they will be in the playoffs.
The Vikings need a big game from Cousins and his receivers but I worry about the Rams pass rush against an offensive line that was shaky in Chicago and the Rams No. 4 ranked passing attack looks like it has the advantage in the matchup with Minnesota’s No. 29 ranked pass defense. McVay outschemed the Vikings to the tune of 465 yards passing and 5 TDs by Jared Goff the last time the teams met in 2018 (and Cousins threw for 422 yards and 3 TDs in that 38-31 Rams shootout win). The lasting image from that game was Barr somehow getting stuck covering Kupp who beat him on a 70 yard TD.
It likely will come down to which QB plays better and doesn’t turn it over or perhaps who has a bigger day between Kupp and Jefferson, the top two in NFL receiving yards this season (but Thielen had 100 plus yards receiving in his last two games against the Rams).
I hope the Purple prove me wrong and perhaps a vocal U.S. Bank Stadium crowd can make it tough on the Rams offense and aid the Minnesota pass rushers. But I’m calling it 31-27 Rams.
[brid autoplay=”true” video=”928532″ player=”26279″ title=”4%20ideal%20offseason%20Kirk%20Cousins%20trade%20destinations” duration=”81″ description=”It’s time for the Minnesota Vikings to start making plans for the future, one that includes a 2022 offseason with a Kirk Cousins trade and an organizational reset after another disappointing season.Cousins will enter 2022 in a contract year, a position he and the Vikings are very familiar with. While the 33-year-old quarterback is playing at a high level, it’s evident he and the Vikings aren’t close to competing for the NFC North title or a Super Bowl.With that in mind, we examine the best Kirk Cousins trades that would benefit both the star quarterback and his teams.” uploaddate=”2021-12-22″ thumbnailurl=”https://cdn.brid.tv/live/partners/17660/snapshot/928494_s_1640136316410.jpg” contentUrl=”https://cdn.brid.tv/live/partners/17660/streaming/928494/928494.m3u8″]
Around the NFL Observations:
- I predicted that Covid issues would derail one or more teams from playoff berths and perhaps once the playoffs begin. That appears to be the case with Washington who was forced to play their third string QB Garrett Gilbert in the Tuesday loss in Philly.
Now the Vikings have to hope Cook’s Covid case isn’t part of their undoing. However one of their chief rivals for the last wild card spot has Covid problems too with the Saints’ top two QBs testing positive this week so rookie Ian Book is the likely starter Monday night against Miami (winners of six straight). - It will be an exciting finish to the regular season in the AFC where the 10-4 Chiefs are the league’s hottest team with seven straight wins and have grabbed the top spot. The AFC North has all four teams within one game of each other, the Pats and Bills will battle for the AFC East lead on Sunday and in the AFC South, Tennessee is trying to hold off a charging Indianapolis led by their star back Jonathan Taylor.
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Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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