The Wobby Series: AFC South Preview
Not typically a flashy collection of teams, the AFC South was a headline-generating machine this past offseason. The Deshaun Watson saga in Houston was a constant source of speculation, the Indianapolis Colts acquired Carson Wentz, the Jacksonville Jaguars hired Urban Meyer then selected Trevor Lawrence first overall and even added Tim Tebow for a cup of coffee and then the reigning champion Tennessee Titans moved aggressively to upgrade both sides of the ball by trading for WR Julio Jones and signing LB Bud Dupree.
Wobby’s Projected Standings
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans
After all the offseason headlines and jockeying for position, how will the AFC South shake out? Probably a lot like last year. The two changes that seem most plausible are Indianapolis hitting its groove with Wentz and upsetting Tennessee for the division title and Jacksonville generating enough improvement to surpass the turmoil-ridden Texans, who will probably be without Watson all season.
This two-team race between Tennessee and Indianapolis will ultimately come down to the Titans defense. The key change was the free-agent signing of Dupree. He is coming off a torn ACL but figures to supercharge a Titans pass rush that had just 25 sacks in 2020. Dupree, a 1st-rounder in 2015, had 11.5 sacks in 2019 and then had 8.0 sacks in 11 games before his injury. The Titans ranked 28th in total defense, 25th in scoring defense, and 32nd in 3rd down defense last season. Any notable improvement for Tennessee in these categories makes them the prohibitive favorite in the South.
The Colts won’t go away easily, though. They have one of the League’s best offensive lines, are well-coached, and are tough on defense. Indianapolis had top-10 rankings in total defense, scoring defense, and takeaways and they stand to improve on this side of the ball with the maturation of young talent, including the 1st-round selection of DE Kwity Paye. On offense, the Colts were aggressive in replacing the retired Philip Rivers. The acquisition of Wentz is a reuniting of a QB with his former offensive coordinator – Colts Head Coach Frank Reich was the OC in Philadelphia during Wentz’s tenure there. If the Colts are right on Wentz, it’s game on in the AFC South. If the Wentz-Colts union sputters, then Tennessee remains in a superior position.
Houston and Jacksonville both feature new head coaches and new starting QBs, although the dawn of a new era for each franchise begins under starkly different backdrops. For Houston, the new starting QB is Tyrod Taylor and he’s in that position because of the uncertainty of Watson’s status due to off-field controversy. For Jacksonville, the hope is an influx of college football pedigree will lead to pro football success as Urban Meyer takes over as head coach and Lawrence assumes the starting quarterback position. Although Houston’s roster may have more overall talent than Jacksonville’s, my suspicion is the combination of turmoil in Houston with the optimism and upstart feel in Jacksonville will lead to the Jaguars topping the Texans.
In the end, I expect Tennessee to outlast everyone else in this division and capture another title. The Colts begin the season with games against Seattle, the LA Rams, Tennessee, Miami, and Baltimore, too, so any early struggles will only exacerbate the margin that already exists.