Kirk Cousins
The temptation is to declare defeatism or doomsday after the Minnesota Vikings fell short of victory at the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12. The Vikings hung tough in the contest but lost due to ineffective quarterback play in the 2nd Half, outlandishly porous rushing defense, one too many turnovers, and an awful time-of-possession split.
But the loss did little to stymy Minnesota’s playoff chances. All the game really did in retrospect was afford the 49ers a stranglehold on the NFC’s sixth seed. Minnesota resides in the seventh seed on Monday morning.
And that’s because the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, and Philadelphia Eagles lost in Week 12, too — an occurrence unforeseen by most pundits and Vikings fans. Minnesota lost out on what San Francisco currently owns — a steady grip on the sixth seed.
Now, thanks to the loss at San Francisco, the Vikings must hope the 49ers lose a couple of games while Mike Zimmer’s team takes care of business versus the Lions, Steelers, and Bears. Otherwise, if the 49ers don’t drop some ballgames, the Vikings will spend the next six weeks fending off suitors for the seventh seed in the NFC playoff picture.
Per FiveThirtyEight.com, the Vikings hold 50% odds to reach the postseason. It’s a true-blue coinflip. And that feels about right for a Vikings team that plays promising in stretches of games while so disappointing in crunchtime of others.
If the Vikings can down the Detroit Lions in Michigan next weekend, the playoff probability rises to 59%. In the event of a loss — a ghastly thought, considering Detroit is 0-10-1 — Minnesota’s postseason percentage would dip to 24%. Too, the Vikings don’t deserve a playoff game — even of the wildcard variety — if they find a way to bungle the Lions experience.
But if the world stays on its axis and Minnesota knocks off Detroit, a win at home versus Pittsburgh in Week 14 would nudge the playoff odds to 67%. So, the Vikings proverbial fate lies in their own possession. Even at 5-6, Zimmer’s bunch need not “scoreboard watch” to reach the postseason. They must forget the memory of the 49ers loss, mitigate Dalvin Cook’s probable absence, and find a way to get the defensive line back to form. In San Francisco on Sunday, the Vikings had no starting defensive linemen at their disposal.
Also, if the Washington Football Team — Kirk Cousins’ old squad — loses on Monday to Russell Wilson’s Seattle Seahawks, then the Vikings playoff hopes inch up even more. After Week 12, a loss by Washington to Seattle would plop the Vikings at 53% playoff odds.
Finally, for interested brains, 67% of Minnesota’s remaining schedule is against NFC North foes. Ergo, should the Vikings have interest in obtaining the sixth or seventh seed in the playoffs, they’ll have to slay familiar enemies in the process — the Lions, Packers, and Bears. Oh my?
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).