The Mind-Boggling Change of Pace for Zimmer’s Vikings
Dustin Baker
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Inevitably, you will be told (probably already have) by friends and confidants that the Minnesota Vikings “keep doing this.” That is, letting fans downs week after week in nailbiter games.
The Vikings have engaged in a relentless streak of close games in 2021, sending onlookers of the team into an orbit of suspense and cynicism.
But it didn’t used to be this way.
Sure, the Vikings royally disappointed you 45+ years ago in four Super Bowls, and then in 1998, 2000, 2009, and 2015, etc. That is indisputable.
Yet, in the here and now, the barrage of tight games is new. Under Mike Zimmer, who took over the team in 2014, games used to be decided handily in one direction or another. Only with the commencement of the 2020 season have Sundays turned wholly nerve-wracking. You can choose to let recency dictate your pessimism — or you can recognize the newness of the phenomenon.
Here’s the perspective:
In plain speak, during Zimmer’s first six seasons, the Vikings participated in the second-fewest close games. Since the start of 2020, Minnesota has partaken in the second-most games decided by one score or less.
Before the pandemic season, the Vikings, for the most part, either won decisively or lost decisively. They’d kick butt or receive a butt-kicking (and it was mostly butt-kicking because the Vikings were the NFL’s seventh-best franchise from 2014 to 2019 per win percentage).
Now, it’s the inverse. The only game this season in which the score was settled outside of one touchdown was the Vikings win over Russell Wilson’s Seattle Seahawks. Whoodathunkit? Prior to Minnesota’s 13-point win over Seattle in Week 3, the Seahawks downed the Vikings seven consecutive times. Zimmer ended the streak back in September, and it was the only 2021 game to date that was not an absolute squeaker.
And in those games decided by seven or fewer points since the beginning of 2020, the Vikings own a 7-9 win-loss record — about the 20th-best in the NFL. Zimmer’s club is playing in anxiety-riddled contests and losing more than winning. This tendency will likely lead to his termination at the end of the season if the Vikings do not embark on a mighty winning streak.
From 2014 to 2019, Minnesota won 41 games by eight or more points. That was the third-most in the NFL during the timeframe behind the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs. Zimmer used to “easily” beat teams. That stopped when last year began. And there is really no good explanation for it. Last year, the working theory suggested injuries were the culprit. However, the pattern had bled into 2021, too.
In the last two seasons, only the Los Angeles Chargers have played more games decided by seven points or less. Their tally is at 17 to Minnesota’s 16.
Feeling dread that a Vikings game is heading toward the final possession in close fashion is a more than reasonable emotion to possess — you should feel that way, in fact, based on recent history.
But the phenomenon is new. Very new. The dichotomies of the 2014-2019 Vikings are vastly different than the 2020-2021 Vikings.
If you know why, send us a tweet. We’re trying to understand it, too.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
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