Pro Football Focus Reveals Vikings Playoff Probability Percentage
The hits just keep on coming — at least in terms of public opinion of the 2021 Minnesota Vikings.
Fortunately, predictions are just predictions and have no bearing on the outcome of a regular season. Yet, on the general consensus of the Vikings from a birdseye view, many pundits foresee another meh campaign in Minnesota.
Via The Athletic‘s piece on anonymous general managers predicting the outcome of the NFC, Minnesota is in the eighth spot for the conference pecking order.
Bleacher Report sticks with the executives, assigning a 9-8 record to the Vikings.
And CBS Sports is even lower on Minnesota’s 2021 stock. They’ve associated the team with a 7-10 year-end standing.
Therefore, if the Vikings plan to make the 2021 season feel closer to 2017 or 2019 — instead of 2018 or 2020 — head coach Mike Zimmer’s team will go against the grain. In nearly every set of predictions (and plenty exist at the moment), the Green Bay Packers easily walk away with the division, leaving the Vikings in a nearly universal second-place standing.
As for playoffs, Pro Football Focus chimed in on the topic. PFF calls the Vikings the 18th-best team in the NFL at the moment and calculates the odds of reaching the postseason at 35%. The teams with the highest probability to reach the playoffs are unsurprisingly the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (86%), Kansas City Chiefs (82%), and Green Bay Packers (81%). The lowest? The Houston Texans (6%), Detroit Lions (9%), Philadelphia Eagles (21%).
With Minnesota at 35%, Zimmer’s bunch is bedfellows with the New England Patriots (34%), Carolina Panthers (33%), and Los Angeles Chargers (33%). All of these teams have something in common on the PFF forecast — they’re looking up at the titans of industry that top the playoff probability: Buccaneers, Chiefs, Packers, and Bills.
All of these subpar rankings and predictions proceed a busy offseason for the Vikings. General Manager Rick Spielman prioritized the defense, acquiring Patrick Peterson, Dalvin Tomlinson, Sheldon Richardson, Xavier Woods, and Bashaud Breeland, among others. The Vikings finally signed an offensive free agent in July, landing Dede Westbrook from the Jacksonville Jaguars, a player who can perhaps play WR3. The Vikings haven’t employed a real one of those since Jarius Wright. That was four years ago.
In recent weeks, some fans’ enthusiasm dampened for the 2021 outlook. Minnesota holds one of the NFL’s lowest COVID vaccination rates, and the rules for those who opt-out of the vaccine are not advantageous. Then, TE Irv Smith Jr. was lost for the season with a meniscus tear. He was theorized by everyone in the world for a rise to stardom. But not in 2021. That will have to wait.
Historically, Minnesota performs at its zenith when expectations are low, so perhaps this preseason disrespect will foreshadow prosperity. The Vikings often faceplant when the stakes are high — or so fans of the team for decades might mention.
And maybe odd-year voodoo is on the menu. In seven years under Zimmer, the Vikings alternate playoff seasons with disappointing, mediocre ones. The pattern is like clockwork.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday along with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).