Analyzing Kirk Cousins’ Trade Value
Last weekend, the Rams took part in a blockbuster trade sending Jared Goff, two 1st round draft picks, and a 3rd round draft pick to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. More quarterback swaps are expected to happen this offseason, and the price will probably be much higher than expected.
The 49ers — like to the Rams — look as though they could be a quarterback away from being back in Super Bowl contention. The team was reportedly in trade talks with Detroit. Now that Stafford is off the table, rumors have circulated that Kirk Cousins is the next target, which makes sense considering Kyle Shanahan’s history with Cousins. Based on recent events, here is the breakdown of what Kirk’s trade value should be:
Cousins vs. Stafford
The first thing to look at to determine Kirk’s trade value is how he stacks up against Stafford.
Kirk Cousins:
Last 50 games
Passing Yards – 13,133
Passing Touchdowns – 99
Interceptions – 30
Completions – 69%
Passer Rating – 103.6
Sacks – 115
Matthew Stafford:
Image courtesy of Vikings.com
Last 50 games
Passing Yards – 13,401
Passing Touchdowns – 79
Interceptions – 32
Completions – 65%
Passer Rating – 94.7
Sacks – 120
Looking at stats, a coherent argument can be state that Cousins has the same — if not better — trade value than Stafford. The only knock is that some argue that Stafford is more mobile than Cousins, and he is slated to make $9 million less than Cousinsnext year.
Garoppolo vs. Goff
The next thing to consider is how much Jimmy Garoppolo is worth compared to Jared Goff. If the 49ers are going to trade for Kirk, they will have to tack on Garoppolo, as he is set to make $26 million next season. If the Rams had to include two 1st round picks and a 3rd round pick with Goff then what would the 49ers have to add on with Garoppolo?
Jimmy Garoppolo:
31 Games (Based on his first full season as starting quarterback)
Passing Yards – 7,352
Passing Touchdowns – 46
Interceptions – 26
Completions – 68%
Passer Rating – 98.1
Sacks – 68
Jared Goff:
Dec 16, 2018; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16) gestures in the first quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
31 Games
Passing Yards – 8,590
Passing Touchdowns – 42
Interceptions – 29
Completions – 65%
Passer Rating – 88.1
Sacks – 45
Garoppolo has a slight edge in the stats department, and his cap hit is almost $9 million less than Goff for next season. If the Vikings trade Cousins, his cap hit for next season would drop to $21 million, which, compared to Garoppolo, is a steal of a contract.
Are The Vikings Interested?
This all boils down to the notion of Vikings willingness to trade Cousins. This is the first time since Dante Culpepper that the Vikings have had a quarterback start in three consecutive seasons. For all the disdain targeted at Cousins, he has been the most consistent quarterback Minnesota have seen in years.
Unless Spielman and Zimmer see Jimmy Garoppolo as a long-term option — which is hard to believe at the moment with his injury history and play recently — then the price tag for Kirk should include a 1st round pick along with a 2nd or 3rd round pick to accompany Garoppolo.
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