Justin Jefferson Has a Lofty Goal for 2021

With the rookie receiving-yard record in his rearview, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson’s salivations have turned to 2021. A reasonable, preferable forecast for his sophomore production is to maintain or progress on his incredulous rookie campaign – 1,400 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.

But for Jefferson, that is not enough. He vows no dropped passes in 2021.

The Vikings are about seven weeks away from free agency and less than three months from the NFL draft. Positional needs from these forums include defensive end, defensive tackle, offensive guard, safety, and potentially linebacker. The wide receiver spot is one of the most stable sections of the depth chart, although the team could [finally] land a better-than-mediocre WR3. Substantial output from the WR3 spot has eluded Minnesota for years, arguably since the exodus of Cordarrelle Patterson to Oakland in 2017 (and Patterson was more apt with special teams than pass-catching).

Jefferson and Thielen will remain the trusted pass-catching duo inside the Vikings offense no matter who is chosen to play WR3. The 21-year-old Jefferson was allotted 125 targets from quarterback Kirk Cousins in 2020, the most by a rookie wide receiver since Amari Cooper (130 targets) in 2015. All signs point to a more plentiful target load for Jefferson in 2021.

Thielen will be 31 years old when the season starts in September, but he has shown no visible signs of deterioration to date. His hands, like Jefferson’s, are ultra-reliable and a signature of his skill set. Thielen is also a tremendous route-runner, so those two tools in his bag may keep him gainfully employed for longer than most pass-catchers.

As for “no drops,” and Jefferson next season – is it doable?

Not Too Far Away from Drop Perfection

Jefferson likely assigned this self-goal for a sensible reason. He only tallied two drops in 2020. One occurred at a devastating juncture – a pivotal game versus the Dallas Cowboys in the fourth quarter. Betting money suggests that Jefferson remembers it vividly and hence formulated the no-drops aspiration.

Reducing the drop total from two to zero, as a matter of sheer volume, is not challenging. Jefferson will merely need to be a little closer to perfect.

Jefferson’s predecessor, Stefon Diggs, had the 12th-most drops in the business during 2020. Diggs encountered five drops whereas players like Tyreek Hill had six (sixth-most in the NFL), and fellow rookies Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb had nine drops apiece (tied for second-most). The league “leader” in drops for 2020 was Diontae Johnson (10) with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Therefore, even if Jefferson fails to reach his impeccable goal of zero drops, his rookie performance that netted just two will be championed regardless.

Only 4 Players Perfect in Last 3 Seasons

Who else has achieved zero drops as of late? The list is tiny.

Denver Broncos upstart wideout, Tim Patrick, was the only player in the business to drop the football zero times with a minimum of 75 targets. The year before that, 2019, Larry Fitzgerald was targeted 109 times by Kyler Murray and Brett Hundley while incurring no drops. For Fitzgerald, this is wickedly unsurprising because his career is built on a bedrock of handsyness. He was the only 2019 wide receiver with north of 75 targets and zero drops.

In 2018, two men accomplished the no-drops feat with 75+ targets – Brandin Cooks and Taylor Gabriel. Cooks received passes from the recently-traded Jared Goff during the Rams Super Bowl push of 2018. On Gabriel, he was Mitchell Trubiksy’s security blanket underneath that season. He had no drops on 93 targets en route to 688 receiving yards.

There is precedent if Jefferson is seeking a blueprint for his objective.

Good Teaching

Jefferson is surrounded by men distinguished for catching the football sans drops. The aforementioned Thielen is one of them. The Minnesota State alumnus dropped seven passes in 2020, but that is an outlier for his career chronology. During Thielen’s best season, 2018, Kirk Cousins threw the ball his way 153 times, and Thielen dropped it three times. Thielen was hampered by injury in 2019 but dropped just one pass on 48 targets.

And then Jefferson plays with Kyle Rudolph – for now. Rudolph is theorized to be one of the first Vikings confronted for contract renegotiation, trade, or outright release. In the last three years, Rudolph has dropped one pass on 167 targets. He is the single-most reliable catcher of the football on the Minnesota Vikings, by the numbers.

Jefferson keeps company with sticky-handed fellows. While his goal is ambitious, he will have an accurate quarterback, mentorships, and the personal confidence to perhaps enter the no-drop club.

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