Is Minnesota Already In Must-Win Territory? Maybe.

KIrk Cousins
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Despite looking like a far better team compared to a season ago, the Minnesota Vikings fell to Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals 27-24 in overtime last Sunday afternoon. It was the second straight season that Minnesota lost their opener after a stretch of four years opening the season 1-0. With the NFC West and AFC North on the horizon, the Vikings may already be nearing must-win territory — an 0-2 start may be insurmountable with the NFL’s fifth toughest strength of schedule (.531) this season. Although they have an extra game to work within the NFL’s inaugural 17-game season, the next three weeks will be crucial to the Vikings’ success this season and the long-term stability of head coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman.

After a tough matchup this week against the Arizona Cardinals, including the task of containing early MVP-favorite Kyler Murray (289 passing yards, 5 total touchdowns in Week 1), the road doesn’t get any easier for the Vikings. Minnesota will return home to face the Seattle Seahawks (1-0) and Cleveland Browns (0-1) in back-to-back weeks. The Vikings have lost seven straight games against the Seahawks, including the last three straight years on the road in Seattle.

Minnesota has historically been better against the Browns (12-4 all-time, wins in 5 of last 6 games), but this season will be much different. Former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski led the Browns to an 11-5 matchup and a playoff victory in his first season as a head coach for Cleveland and opened the 2021 season with a good showing despite a 33-29 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Vikings will have their hands full over the next few weeks and will have a brutal five-game stretch (vs. Dallas, at Baltimore, at LA Chargers, vs. Green Bay, and at San Francisco) from late October into November. The worst-case scenario is that the Vikings have a 1-3 or 0-4 record after their first four weeks and will be faced with the decision of Zimmer and Spielman’s future with the team.

Zimmer and Chicago Bears coach Matt Nagy are considered to be the two favorites to be the first NFL head coach to be fired this season. Spielman is almost directly tied with Zimmer, as both of their contracts run through 2023, and general managers almost never last through two head coaching changes. Realistically, the Vikings should be looking at this Sunday’s game against the Cardinals as a must-win as it’s the easiest road to a 2-2 record through the first tough stretch of games.

If the Vikings lose, however, it doesn’t mean that it would be the end of the world. The rest of the NFC North looked objectively bad in Week 1, including future ‘Jeopardy!’ host Aaron Rodgers posting a 36.8 QBR and throwing two interceptions in a 38-3 loss to the New Orleans Saints. At worst, the Vikings would be only one game back of the division lead with all six divisional games remaining if they were to lose on Sunday afternoon.

The last time the Vikings made the playoffs after starting 0-1 was in 2015, as Minnesota won seven of their next eight games after losing to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1. Can this year’s team do the same thing, or will the tough matchups early in the season be too much to overcome?